Rafalopes83: Because the villain bet the pot on the turn I put him on TPKG.
I called because I had a lot of outs and a chance of a straight flush.
What about the pot odds?
30% outs (14 outs) x 33.3% odds (38/19=2:1=100/3=33.3)
Wrong call!!?
Full Tilt Poker $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em
8 players
BTN: $2.02
SB: $1.82
BB: $1.00
UTG: $2.00
UTG+1: $0.46
MP: $1.36
Player (sitting out): $2.00
MP+1: $2.00
CO: $2.68
Preflop: ( $0.03 )
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.02, MP calls $0.02, 1 fold, CO calls $0.02, 1 fold, SB calls $0.01, BB checks
Flop: ( $0.10 ) 2clubs, Khearts, 3clubs (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets $0.05, 1 fold, CO calls $0.05, 2 folds
Turn: ( $0.20 ) 6spades (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $0.19, CO calls $0.19
River: ( $0.58 ) 6hearts (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $0.20 ( all-in ), CO calls $0.20
Results:Final Pot: $0.98
UTG+1 had Tdiamonds, Kclubs
CO had 6clubs, 4clubs
CO collects $0.92 from pot
Rafalopes83: Actually, putting the villain with TPKG would have +3 outs
It would be then:
9 outs pro flush + (gutshot) :5h:5d:5s + :6h:6d + :4h:4d:4s
Total 17 outs = 36% outs x 33.3% odds
Correct call right?
Tex Wilde: Right.
And since he was very short, he could consider his remaining 20 cents as implied odds.
RicardoSzZ: You played it right.....
It could have been a Flush, Straight or Straight Flush and you'd already have the trinket 🙂 Strong game....
The guy relied too much on his KK pair, since the other cards were all low. You don't do that in cash.
And of course the read you had on the guy was worth it too, because depending on the turn it was insta fold.
Petrillo: Dude, if you consider 100% of your outs alive, the call is correct. Assuming you have 17 outs, by the 4-2 rule you have a 34% chance of winning.
On the other hand, whenever someone bets the pot, you have 33% pot odds (in fact, since he bet $0.19, you had 19/58 = 32.76%). So you have 33% and your call can be considered marginal: whether you call or fold, both decisions are correct.
Increasing would be an option. You would spend $0.39 for a pot of $0.98, which is 39/98 or 40%, greatly improving your long-term expectations...
Therefore, the best course of action in this situation would be to raise, even if you saw an AA or AK in the villain's hand.
But the best move would be to fold pf... 😉
Petrillo: Of course, I'm only talking about the turn... On the river, of course, it's insta-call.
Matuiss21: how did you read that he had exactly K10? He could have had any top pair from the way he played up to K6...
Petrillo: He kicked. It's practically impossible to define the range of an SS limper in NL2.
Rafalopes83: how did you read that he had exactly K10? He could have had any top pair from the way he played up to K6...
I deduced that he had the K, at no point did I say "exactly" that he had the K.
Every hand I play, I try to put my opponent in a certain range of hands to make it easier to read the play! ....
Of course, the reading won't always be correct!
But I always play with this goal in mind: to read my opponents and trust in that reading.
Or am I wrong?!!!
Thanks... :happy34:
TostesBr: I'll shove on that turn, better to do that than to hit nothing on the river and look like an ass
Simão: I shove on this turn, better to do that than to hit nothing on the river and look like an ass
This, being on the turn, I think it's better to shove or fold, the call, although mathematically correct, is weak, mainly because your FD is baby, and since the villain has limped it's impossible to know what he has. He may even have a bigger FD than you.
Another thing, in NL 2, if you're going to play the hand, raise, those limps only put you in marginal situations. I'm playing 32/27 FR and it's working very well, most NL2 players are weak, exploit that.
Rafalopes83: I'll shove on this turn, better to do that than to hit nothing on the river and look like an ass
Ok agree....
One more doubt here: in another situation, both deep stacked.... would it be worth shoving too?
Valeu.... :happy34:
Petrillo: I deduced that he had the K, at no point did I say "exactly" that he had the K.
Every hand I play, I try to put my opponent in a certain range of hands to make it easier to read the play! ....
Of course, the reading won't always be correct!
But I always play with this goal in mind: to read my opponents and trust in that reading.
Or am I wrong?!!!
Thanks... :happy34:
No way Rafalopes! You're right! You should always put your opponents in a certain range.
And how do you do that? With knowledge. The more you know about the villain's behavior, the better your estimate will be and the less uncertainty there will be.
The problem is that in your comment you said that you deduced that the villain had K. This is not putting the villain in a range, this is trying to guess what he has.
He went in clean and you just paid for a position with naipad connectors (many say it's a sexy hand, but it gets us into a lot of trouble)...
What information led you to believe he had K? How many hands did you play against him? How many times did you see him limp OOP? How many times did you see him take the initiative on the flop/turn being limper pf and being OOP?
You had to have lots and lots of information to deduce that he had a K.
The big problem is that he went in clean. So his range was almost ATC.
And actually, within the context, what he had didn't matter much, because you were losing to almost everything (even winning just from a bluff) and so you needed to improve your hand.
As his range was very large, we could tell from his stack and the action that he probably had a game made and beat a pair of 6s with a low kicker. But even then, we can't say for sure.
Do you see the difference between estimating range and trying to guess the villain's hand?
The fact is that the action gave you good odds even against AK or AA and the call (and even better the raise) is correct.
Very interesting hand and the discussion around it!
Petrillo: Ok I agree....
One more doubt here: in another situation, both deep stacked.... would it be worth shoving too?
Valeu.... :happy34:
The best answer here is: it depends.
Post your complete hand-hypothesis (including stack size and villain profile information, among others), and we'll be able to comment. :happy34:
Petrillo: Perfect example.
When a passive player bets on the flop and turn, he has a strong game.
As he bet the pot on the turn, the call is marginal pf: you have about 33% chance of improving the hand and the pot gives you 33%.
If he bets on the river or calls a good bet, the call is very +EV. If he folds every time you hit, the call is marginal. So in this context, the call is correct.
@ Shovar on the turn
We have to risk $1.81 to win $3.80 (I'll forget the rake to make it easier).
So 1.81/3.80 ~ 48%, so the shove is super -EV (I need to win 48% of the time to draw; unless the villain folds most of the time, which in NL2 happens just the opposite).
So the call is +EV and the shove is very -EV.
Rafalopes83: The best answer here is: it depends.
Post your complete hand-hypothesis (including stack size and villain profile information, among others), and we'll be able to comment. :happy34:
8 players
BTN: $2.02
SB: $1.82
BB: $1.00
UTG: $2.00
UTG+1: $1.90
MP: $1.36
Player (sitting out): $2.00
MP+1: $2.00
CO: $2.68
Hero(CO)2.68 : :4c:6c
Villain(UTG+1)1.90 : ???? = Passive player many limp/calls in EP (wide hand range: pocket pair, A8+,10J,Q10,K10,JQ,JK,QK....)
Preflop: ( $0.03 )
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.02, MP calls $0.02, 1 fold, CO calls $0.02, 1 fold, SB calls $0.01, BB checks
Flop: ( $0.10 ) 2clubs, Khearts, 3clubs (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets $0.07, 1 fold, CO calls $0.07, 2 folds
Turn: ( $0.24 ) 6spades (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $0.24, Hero????
Original author: Rafalopes83.
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