"So I went maybe two hours without playing any hands. I was card dead," is how she began the story. "My stack was slowly going away, so I decided to take some initiative."
The initiative she decided to take was to open with :7c :6s for $20 in a $2-$5 game of MP. Two people called, as did the big blind.
The flop came :Ah :8h :4s and she bet, to "represent the Ace", with her gutshot-straight draw. She bet again on the turn when she missed the straight. On the river she got the 5 and beat someone holding :As :Kc for her entire stack.
"I know I was lucky," she said, "but I felt it was the right thing to do, given the situation."
Well, it wasn't the right thing to do. As I've heard variations of this line of thought several times, I decided it was time to write about being card dead (being a long time without receiving playable hands).
Your Card Dead phase can end at any time
Here's the first concept. Each hand is independent. If you've been dealt garbage hands several times in a row, it doesn't affect what you get in the next hand. Each new hand is completely new, completely random. There could be more garbage hands, there could be a pair, something suited, anything. It's random.
It seems to me that after a certain period where you get a lot of bad hands, most people start to get used to those hands as the new normal. As if the rules of mathematics had broken the space-time continuum just to keep the aces away from you.
It can happen very quickly. I think part of the reason this feeling is so common has to do with how our brains learn (learning by experiencing hands is more powerful than by doing calculations).
But the reality is that the rules of mathematics are completely inflexible. There is no such thing as "being card dead", there is only "was card dead". It's not something that exists in the present, only in the past. It can wipe out literally any new hand. Every time you get a new hand, you always have the same chance of getting good cards.
So, thinking in this way, a bad card phase is never something that's happening in the present, it's not. It's always in the past, it's not something you carry into the future in any way.
If you think mathematically, like me, you're probably nodding your head as you read this. Bad cards in this hand won't affect what you get in the next hand, it's all random. However, I can tell you that it's very easy to start thinking "you're in a bad phase" instead of "I was in a bad phase".
Resist the temptation. Remember that random means random, there is no such thing as "card dead" that persists into the future. What happened in the past is over.
Don't overestimate your image at the table
The second concept is not universal, as it depends on human psychology. I would say that, as a general rule, the vast majority of players overestimate how their state of being card dead will affect their opponents' perceptions and plays.
"I hadn't played a single hand in the last half hour, so I figured they'd respect my raise this time." No! No! Most of the players at the table probably won't even be aware that you haven't played a hand in all that time. What's more, if you find players who really pay attention to this, there's a good chance that they'll also realize that it's perfectly normal for someone not to receive any good cards, making them prepared to play against you.
So when you say, "I haven't been playing, so I figured they'd respect me," what you're really saying is that you think your opponents live in this magical world where they pay perfect attention to what you do, but at the same time they don't pay enough attention to know that often a player can go all that time without getting good hands, and that when they do get an average hand, they'll end up playing rashly with it, because players who get card dead get bored and also because they become convinced that the table knows how tights they are.
Don't make that kind of mistake. If you haven't played a single hand in a while, the chances are that your players won't change anything in the game against you.
You don't have to take the initiative
Here it is necessary to make a distinction between tournaments and cash games. In cash games, where your stacks are relatively deep compared to the big blind, there is absolutely no reason to start playing more hands just because you haven't had any good hands for a while. If you do play looser by your standards, or if you start playing more aggressively than usual (such as raising pre-flop with a hand that would normally just pay), the chances are that your opponents will notice and take a strategy that will hurt you in the long run.
So, if you play cash games, my advice is quite simple: Sit down comfortably and don't worry, you'll get some good hands eventually. If you're bored, take a walk, listen to some music, or do something else to break things up a bit. If your table isn't so good, consider changing tables. But don't do it thinking it will change your luck, random is random.
This could be a good thing, because if you don't feel comfortable at the table, it could be a sign to change anyway. And if it gives you a new perspective on the game, even better. You certainly tend to get less bored at a new table compared to an old one.
In tournaments, however, things get more complicated. That's because the stacks are smaller, and every round you don't play you lose a lot of chips compared to the big blind. In general, the smaller your stack, the more hands you should play.
However, this isn't just because you "have to take the initiative" to win a tournament. On the contrary, it's because the mathematics of poker change when you're playing with a 5-big-blind stack, versus when you're playing with 10, 20 or 50 big blinds. Also, since most tournaments have antes, the structure itself requires you to play looser than you would in cash games.
So, yes, in tournaments you need to play looser if you don't get good cards for a long time, but that's only because you'll have a small stack. It's the size of the stack that requires a different way of playing, not your bad phase. However, you shouldn't force hands that don't make sense, such as calling light raises just because you "can't let the blinds get to you". Be patient and play with a good strategy.
Final thoughts
So what do you do when you've been card dead for a long time? Nothing. Eventually the cards will come. And, more importantly, you usually have more to lose than to gain if you start mixing up your playing styles too much. In cash games you can take a break or change tables if you can't take it. In tournaments, you obviously have less control over the situation, so the best thing to do is to play as your stack dictates.
Article translated and adapted from the original: What To Do When You're Card Deaad
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