In poker, your bets tell a story. However, to tell a good story, one that is consistent and makes sense, you need to plan. Even advanced players occasionally throw a bet without thinking about whether it makes sense or not. This concept I’m referring to is called bet congruence, which basically means whether your bet follows a logical flow and makes sense based on your actions during the hand. You need to tell the right story at the right time.
To be effective at telling a story, that is, to be able to plan ahead for the different possible outcomes of a play, requires a good amount of critical thinking and skill. However, doing it correctly can be one of the best tools a good poker player can have.
Furthermore, if you can spot these inconsistencies in other players’ betting patterns, you’ll be able to spot bluffs and traps much more effectively. There’s a lot of talk in poker about playing in an unpredictable way, but even this style of play needs to make sense. It needs to be done deliberately and consciously, not as a result of pure whim.
Example 1
To get an idea of this principle, let's look at some bets that are clearly incongruent, and that we see all the time at the tables.
Our villain raises from early position, a player calls from LP and you call from the button with XX. The flop comes :Qs :3d :7c and the aggressor makes a C-bet. The second villain calls and you also call.
The turn comes :7h. Villain immediately makes a big bet and the player to our right folds. At this point we are comfortable being ahead with almost any combination of cards. Why? Villain's bets don't make sense for most possible hands.
He is representing a set of 7s. However, if he had that hand, it is unlikely that he would bet that high against two opponents, since there are no draws on the board. Furthermore, there are few hands with 7s that he would play from early position. Maybe connected cards of the same suit, but even then the odds are low. If he were holding a queen or pocket 3s, he would probably play more cautiously or slow play.
This type of bluff is easy to catch, and is one we see frequently at low limits.
Example 2
In the previous example, we looked at a very amateurish bluff, which is relatively easy to counter. However, a bluff from strong players is more difficult to deal with. Facing a big bet on the river from a very strong player is one of the most difficult and frustrating moments in poker.
Imagine our strong, tight opponent opens from early position, and we 3-bet from the small blind. He calls alone. The flop comes :Js :Ts :7d . We take the initiative and bet just under half the pot, and Villain calls. The turn comes :7c and both players check. The river comes :4s, we bet, and Villain moves all-in. He is representing the flush, even though it doesn't fit the story of the hand.
We know that his range for playing from early position and flat calling a 3-bet leaves him with strong suited hands like AK, AQ or KQ, or big pairs, with pocket 7s being the lowest. So if we know he hit the flush, it could only be with two high cards. This means that on the flop he had a huge number of outs that would have improved his hand. Knowing this, rather than call, and potentially have a tough decision to make on a bad turn, his most logical play would have been to raise on the flop. We know he is a strong player, that a raise would have had good odds based on the money in the pot, would have given him more information about our hand and even forced us to fold.
Your story doesn't add up. However, to come to that conclusion requires a great deal of critical thinking. This is the kind of thinking a good player needs to use on every hand if he wants to be among the best.
Whether or not this play is a semi-bluff, we can safely eliminate the flush, allowing us to move on to further analysis, thinking about hands like sets, straights, or perhaps even pairs.
Example 3
Let’s look at a more advanced use of this concept, where we can apply it to our own betting.
Imagine you are in a situation where you have the nuts, the best possible hand, and you want to take as much money as you can from your opponents. We can use this concept to make a strong hand look like a bluff. Our villain makes a standard raise from the middle of the table and you, with :Jh :Jd , 3-bet from the small blind. The flop comes :Js :6d :3c . Perfect! You have the best possible hand and you know that your opponent has a wide range of hands, something like any combination of high cards, a middle pair or even suited connectors.
As the first to act, your play here is critical. Most players, strong or weak, would immediately slow play and check the flop, hoping for a bet from Villain. However, consider the entire narrative you are about to tell, from beginning to end. Slow playing is indeed a good play, but it should be done on the turn so that it does not feel like a slow play. If there is a chance that our Villain will call a C-bet, then a C-bet is the correct choice. Furthermore, a modest C-bet will be called by most hands in our opponent's range.
The problem with checking the flop is that you end up putting yourself in a dangerous position for the turn, which can have two possible consequences: if an ace, king or queen comes on the turn and you bet, you will be representing that hand. This outcome is fine, as long as our opponent also hits something, otherwise he will fold and we will not make any more money. If the second jack comes and you bet, you will be giving away the hand as a slow play, which would make any decent player suspicious. Alternatively, you can check the turn and bet on the river. However, don't bet too much, as you may give away your slow play. The downside is that this way you will not make much money in the long run either.
Suppose you C-bet the flop a little and Villain calls. Now when you check the turn, no matter what comes, it will look like you screwed up. You will be representing genuine weakness, and your bet on the river, no matter what comes, will look like a weak steal or bluff.
This level of thinking should be employed as often as possible. What story am I telling here? Is it plausible? Do I want it to be plausible? Try to plan your stories from the beginning, and have alternative endings prepared for any cards that may come during the hand.
Article translated and adapted from the original: Understanding Betting Congruence
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This text is very useful. Although it is a difficult habit to pick up, it is well worth the effort.
I will focus on this in the next freerolls.
Thank you.
Wow, that's great. Do that, Erick.
Good luck at the tables! Cheers