Fold Equity in Poker - Understanding

Fold equity in poker is very simple.

Basically, it's a percentage (a frequency) of the times your opponent will fold to your bet. For example, a player might say "my bet is profitable because I'm capitalizing on fold equity". You can apply fold equity to any bet in poker, be it pre-flop, on the flop, on the turn, or even on the river!

Every bet in poker has a fold equity value based on how often your opponent will fold his hand, and over time you will learn different ways to quantify and maximize fold equity. The profitability of any bet is formed by combining the observed fold equity with the pot equity (the percentage share you have of winning the pot at the moment). The more fold equity you have, the less pot equity you need for your bet to be profitable.

To put it another way, the more pot equity you have, the less fold equity you need for your bet to be profitable. That's exactly why a semi-bluff is profitable: you capitalize on your fold equity and combine it with your pot equity.

Quantifying and capitalizing on fold equity

An excellent way to quantify how much fold equity you have is to look at and understand the statuses (data) you have on your opponent by looking at a tracker like Hold'em Manager.

Remember, when making any decision based on numbers from a tracker, make sure the sample is large enough to be reliable.

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• The profitability of a late position pre-flop steal can be imagined using the "defend rate in the small blind and big blind" data. Or, more simply, look at his VPIP/PFR and his 3-BET percentage to get an idea of how many times he will fold, call or raise your steal.
• The profitability of a 3-BET or 4-BET can be imagined by looking at the fold data for 3-BET and 4-BET in that position
• The profitability of a continuation bet can be imagined by looking at the fold status of the opponent's continuation bet.
• The profitability of a double/triple barrel can be imagined by looking at the fold percentage for our opponents' turn and river bets.

Remember: nothing is static in poker

Remember, nothing is static in poker, so fold equity can be increased or decreased based on almost anything. For example, the turn and river cards can greatly increase or decrease your fold equity. Good turn cards like overcards are excellent for applying the double barrel if you were the aggressor pre-flop. However, cards that form pairs on the board are bad for the double barrel, as they reduce your fold equity.

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On the flop, the texture of the board combined with your opponent's fold to continuation bet can be a good basis for how profitable your bet will be. For example, on coordinated boards you tend to have less fold equity when you bet, because the more coordinated the board is, the easier it is to connect with any two of your opponent's cards.

Your image is also important

Your own statistics and image also affect your fold equity. Remember, the looser your game, the more action you'll get from your opponents. This is very simple to understand, since the more hands you play, the less likely you are to actually have a strong hand and the harder it is for your opponents to believe your bets. If someone raises 100% of hands, they will get much less respect from the table compared to another player who only opens 15% of hands.

Article translated and adapted from original.