How to Improve: Non-Showdown Winnings

The Non-Showdown Winnings (NSDW) statistic (red line on the Hold'em Manager graphs) represents how much is won/lost in hands that do not go to showdown. This is in contrast to Showdown Winnings (SDW) which are the pots won/lost at showdown.

This graph can vary greatly depending on the strategy adopted. Players who use the Short Stack strategy tend to have a positive NSDW, in some cases even higher than the SDW line. This occurs because these players give a lot of preflop all-ins, causing everyone to fold. Since these hands do not have a showdown, the profit goes directly to the NSDW. When they get called, they are not always the big favorites. The preflop all-in range is not only premium hands, it is within the range of hands like TT+, AJ+.

If you play the Tight Aggressive (TAG) style, your NSDW can be very negative, “stealing” almost half of your profits at showdown, and causing anxiety in the player. Usually the first reaction to improve this stat is to play pots aggressively, trying to win the pot through aggression. Making your opponents fold their made hands, using and abusing bluffs, second barreling in many spots where the villains have no fold equity, among others. And what ends up happening? You lose a lot more money, because you don’t improve your NSDW and, as a consequence of over-aggression, your SDW gets worse.

Basically, the NSDW becomes negative when you put money in the pot and fold. Generally, the fact that you have a very negative NSDW occurs due to the repetition of some leaks that will be pointed out below:

Playing from the Blinds

It is very difficult to be a winner playing from these positions, the goal in the blinds is to lose as little as possible. But how do you do that?

Don't always complete the SB. Only complete it when you have a good speculative hand and at least 2 other villains in the pot. Playing speculative hands out of position and heads up is very tricky. Avoid putting yourself in this situation.

Don't play hit or fold in the BB. If you don't hit the flop, don't play all your hands check/fold. This way it's very easy to steal blinds, the villain just needs to limp in and bet any flop, making the BB fold most of the hands. Remember that 66% of the flops don't hit anyone. If the villain always does this, play poker! Make some light 3-bets (pre or post-flop) and he'll fold.

Open Limp and Pockets Pairs

Never open limp unless you intend to trap. If you have a 22 on utg+1, open raise or fold your hand. By open limping all low pockets from early position (EP) and only raising with AQs+, the strength of your hand becomes very evident. By opening your raising range with some pockets, you mask premium hands, increasing your chances of getting paid well. Furthermore, if you don't hit a set on the flop, you don't need to play check/fold; it may be possible to buy the pot with a cbet.

When playing for set value in raised pots, consider the stack sizes. If you are playing against a short stack, folding is usually the best option. Prefer to play for set value in multiway pots with deep stacked opponents. Another aspect to consider is the preflop raiser's range. Against a LAG player, he will be opening the pot with a wide range of hands and will not get bogged down very often. On the other hand, if the preflop raiser is a nit player (PFR >10%) there is a good chance that you will find an AQs+ and the chances of him getting bogged down are even higher.

Limped pots and Playing In Position

When playing a limped pot (a pot where there was no preflop raise), know how to identify the pots that no one wants. Trashy hands probably won't win at showdown! The flop came disconnected and everyone checked, on the turn a low card doubles on the board, bet! No one showed strength, you will take the pot most of the time. And the limpers' blinds will go to your NSDW. Villains usually don't offer much resistance in limped pots, unlike pots that were raised preflop. But remember to choose your spots.

Make the most of your position and increase the range of playable hands in IP. Many pots can be bought with a small bet, since most flops miss most players and the table will check. If the board is not connected, it is possible to steal many pots.

Flop, C-bets and Multiway Pots

Learn to identify good spots to cbet. Villains' range usually has a lot of weak aces, so it's easier to buy a K-high pot than an A-high. Pay attention to the value of the cbets. Betting the pot size as a standard is a leak. Try to bet between 2/3 and 3/4 of the pot.

In multiway pots (3 or more villains), connected flops or flush draws are not good spots for cbets. Consider betting for value if you hit something or check. Bluffing against more than 2 opponents usually doesn't work. In these cases, especially if you are out of position, one option would be to check the flop and, if the turn doesn't bring a scary card, try to buy with a cbet. Your opponents give you information when they choose to check the flop, try to use this to your advantage. But don't be a donkey over aggressive, choose the best situations to bluff.

Avoid calling bets on the flop with the intention of seeing the turn. If the hand is good to play, then play it aggressively or fold. Calling a bet on the flop expecting the villain to show weakness on the turn is very bad, most of the time you will have to fold on the turn. Fold on the flop and save your chips.

Value Hands and Strong Draws

Be more aggressive with value hands, this will improve both SDW and NSDW. Many people only think about value and slow play excessively. To slow play, the ideal is for your opponent to be very aggressive. Against passive villains, slow play will cause you to lose money. Play for stacks, and the way to do this is by betting. Betting half the pot on every street for value is bad. Villains are likely to put more money in with air/draws on the flop than on the river. Take advantage of this and bet more than half the pot on the flop and turn. By playing strong draws aggressively, villain can fold the best hand and when the draws hit, the reward will be greater.

In conclusion, to improve your Non-Showdown Winnings stat you need to find a balance between valuing your good hands and taking advantage of situations where bluffing or semi-bluffing is possible. And if your NSDW curve is still negative, but your overall result is satisfactory, don't worry too much and avoid making major adjustments to your way of playing, as it has been effective the way it is.

(post based on technical discussions on Poker Tips and in the 2+2)