Every hand is an investment
Avoid making EV moves, they will only harm you in the long run.
- Don't get involved in situations where you don't have many outs and the pot odds are bad. Getting into hands where the pot is already very full with marginal hands, low pairs etc can be very dangerous. You'll rarely get any return, and if you do, no matter how big it is, in the long run your play will have a negative EV and you'll lose money.
- Beware of marginal calls and unnecessary bets. Whenever you find yourself in a marginal situation, are faced with a bet and don't know what to do, fold. You'll lose less money making a few folds than calling every time.
Try to combine these mathematical elements with your assessment of the situation from a more intuitive perspective when making your decision. It's tricky to calculate EV in the heat of the moment, but if you have a good read on your opponent and define a range of hands he might be holding, you can compare his probability of winning with yours. That way, you can avoid such plays:
Situation 1:
NL50 6 Handed (live)
Player 1 (SB): ~ 100
Player 2 (BB): ~ 50
Player 3: ~ 100
Player 4: ~ 75
Player 5 (you): ~ 50
You get AK, raise and player 3 calls.
Flop: 4 8 J rainbow, player 3 makes the table and you check behind (he chose not to c-bet because he was too aggressive)
Turn: 3, same thing
River: 6 - Player 3 decides to bet. I call and he shows A3.
What is the purpose of this bet? Normally when you call it will be from a better hand. Most of the time you'll get calls of A8, 9J, 77... and rarely will someone call because they think they're ahead when in fact they only have one high card (as was the case here).
Now you think about it, the play doesn't make any sense and you can clearly conclude that the expected value of this play, in the long run, is negative. This type of bet will normally not make anyone who has a worse hand than yours fold and you'll only get calls from better hands (this hand was an exception).
Situation 2:
NL50 6 Handed (live)
Player 1: ~ 150
Player 2: ~ 50
Player 3(SB): ~ 75
Player 4(BB): ~ 100
Player 5 (You): ~ 125
You get KK, raise and the two players in the blinds call.
Flop: 8 9 T both players check, you bet and they call
Turn: J same thing, but now SB folds when you bet
RiverAt 5 the player in the big blind checks once more and pays his bet once more.
In the end he had 9T and took the pot.
Is two pair a good hand? Yes. But you have to analyze the whole context of the hand.
One player (me) raised, symbolizing a strong hand. It was already a mistake to play 9T out of position, and certainly this hand is behind my raise range in early position and that in itself is a money-losing situation in the long run. As the hand went on, he called on a completely connected board; there were combinations of cards that beat him on the river, but he still decided to call.
Of course, I could take advantage of the table to bluff, but the best thing to do was fold, because the two pairs are rarely ahead in this situation.
Other frequent mistakes, especially among micro stakers, are calling when the odds are not good in relation to your chances of winning.
It's very common to get to the showdown and see that your opponent has been calldown throughout the hand with a gutshot and hasn't hit.
Tip: Treat your hand like an investment. If you avoid risky investments and try to secure yourself in situations where your chance of success is higher, you'll be a winner. Don't get carried away entirely by "feeling", because your interpretation is subject to error, but if you incorporate mathematical thinking into your game and master it to perfection, your game will be "foolproof".
Article Adapted: Credits to TostesBr
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