In poker, there are different levels of players, from the basic level – those who only think about the strength of their hands – to the more advanced levels, who think about ranges, metagame, etc.
In this article, we'll use a hand discussed by Chris Moorman (an online poker legend with over $10 million in winnings) as an example to help us think about how advanced thinking comes into play, and how we can use these thoughts to make good decisions.
The hand in question occurred in a no-limit Texas Hold'em tournament, with blinds at 25/50.
An MP player opens a raise to 150, our hero calls in the SB with :Ac :Jd and the flop comes :Jc :Kd :4h . Hero checks, and then calls villain's C-BET of 300. The turn brings a :Qc , hero checks again, villain bets 500 and hero folds his hand.
The fold on the turn, and the way the hand was played in general, seems pretty standard if you look at it without thinking too deeply about the action. But Moorman went a little deeper and said that calling in the SB is a mistake, and not check-raising on the turn, with an even bigger bet on the river, is an even worse mistake.
Initially, many people may think that this would be a real waste of chips, especially since the tournament is still in its early stages. However, after Moorman's explanation, you will probably change your mind and like the more aggressive line adopted by the professional.
Initially, Moorman says that calling the flop is a must, as a villain betting around 85% of the pot looks a bit odd, and is almost certainly a middle pair that doesn't want any more action like turns or rivers.
On the turn, Villain significantly reduces his bet size to about 53% of the pot. This decision inspires Moorman to switch to a more aggressive line, thus check-raising.
According to Chris Moorman, although :Qc is not the best card in the world for our hero, if the villain is at least an average player, one who already has the ability to think “what does my opponent have?”, he will know that :Qc strengthens our hero's range, because hands like KQ fit perfectly into the way the hand has been played so far.
If villain knows that :Qc is good for our hero's range, he would certainly bet more than 53% of the pot on the turn, to extract greater value, knowing that hero would never fold.
Finally, Chris Moorman says that the villain should have a hand like AK, which would have to worry about a possible KQ from our hero, or even a set or a straight, but bets anyway for two reasons: 1 – he doesn't want to give away a free card, 2 – he doesn't want to lose the initiative, or 3 – he doesn't want to inflate a pot too much with a hand that was super strong and could now be marginal.
For the reasons above, Moorman believes that a check-raise on the turn would be an excellent line to follow in this hand, with a big bet on rivers that are good for our range. Unless, of course, the villain has a high calling station tendency. The hero's line represents a set very well, and would rarely be a marginal hand turned into a bluff.
This example shows how a multi-level thinking can provide us with good opportunities to take chips and profit in seemingly marginal situations. Pay attention to your opponent's level, his sizing, and try new lines!
Article translated and adapted from: Using Multiple-Level Thinking To Turn a Hand Into a Bluff
English 
Português do Brasil 
Español 