Fold Equity in Poker – Understand

Fold Equity in poker is very simple.

Basically, it is a percentage (a frequency) of the times that your opponent will fold to your bet. For example, a player might say, “My bet is profitable because I am capitalizing on fold equity.” You can apply fold equity to any bet in poker, whether it is pre-flop, on the flop, on the turn, or even on the river!

Every bet in poker has a fold equity value based on how often your opponent will fold his hand, and over time you will learn different ways to quantify and maximize fold equity. The profitability of any bet is formed by the combination of the observed fold equity along with the pot equity (the percentage share you have of winning the pot at this point). The more fold equity you have, the less pot equity you need for your bet to be profitable.

Now thinking about it from another perspective, the more pot equity you have, the less fold equity you need for your bet to be profitable. The reason a semi-bluff is profitable is exactly this, you capitalize on your fold equity and combine it with your pot equity.

Quantifying and capitalizing through fold equity

A great way to quantify how much fold equity you have is to look at and understand the stats (data) you have on your opponent by looking at a tracker like Hold'em Manager.

Remember, when making any decision based on tracker numbers, make sure the sample size is large enough to be reliable.

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• The profitability of a preflop steal from late position can be gauged by looking at his “defend rate in the small blind and big blind.” Or, more simply, look at his VPIP/PFR and his 3-BET percentage to get an idea of how often he will fold, call, or raise your steal.
• The profitability of a 3-BET or 4-BET can be guessed by looking at the fold data for 3-BET and 4-BET in that position.
• The profitability of a continuation bet can be estimated by observing the opponent's fold to continuation bet status.
• The profitability of a double/triple barrel can be imagined by looking at the percentage of folds to turn and river bets by our opponents.

Remember: nothing is static in poker

Remember, nothing is static in poker, so fold equity can be increased or decreased based on almost anything. For example, the turn and river cards can greatly increase or decrease your fold equity. Good turn cards such as overcards are excellent for double barreling if you were the preflop aggressor. However, paired cards on the board are bad for double barreling, as they reduce your fold equity.

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On the flop, the texture of the board combined with your opponent's fold to continuation bet can be a good basis for how profitable your bet will be. For example, on coordinated boards you tend to have less fold equity when you bet, because the more coordinated the board is, the easier it is to connect with any two of your opponent's cards.

Your image is also important

Your own stats and image also affect your fold equity. Remember, the looser your play, the more action you will receive from your opponents. This is pretty straightforward to understand, as the more hands you play, the less likely you are to actually have a strong hand and the harder it is for your opponents to believe your bets. If someone raises 100% of hands, that person will get a lot less respect from the table compared to a player who only opens 15% of hands.

Article translated and adapted from original.