To Bet or Not to Bet: That Is the Question

Today I bring you some wisdom from TJ Cloutier, author of a book on no-limit hold'em tournaments that was the first strategy book I ever read. My thoughts, however, do not come from the book, but from his participation in Poker After Dark, from NBC. It was in the 2nd Season of the show that began in September 2007.

First a little context:

On the last hand of the episode the tournament was down to 4 players. The blinds were 200/400, Cloutier and Doyle Brunson had already folded. Phil Hellmuth raised to 1,000 from the small blind with :Qs :3d and Erik Seidel called the big blind's raise holding :Kd :Qd .

The flop came :Qh :As :3s . Hellmuth opted to bet 900. Seidel raised to 2,500 and Hellmuth called. Both players checked the turn which came :4d .

On the river, a :Ad caused Hellmuth to have his two pair (queens and threes) beaten by Seidel's top two pair (aces and queens with a king kicker). Hellmuth checked and Seidel decided to bet 4,000, Hellmuth called.

This sets the scene for a typically “Hellmuthian” line of argument, which talks about how he played the hand perfectly and how lucky Seidel was to win. Among his complaints to Seidel are:

“You’re not even in the same league, Erik. Just be glad the deck keeps saving you every hand we play. I keep slowplaying, and you keep sucking my chips for the fifth time in a row I’ve done so. I could have won all five pots, but I want to let you…”

At this point, Cloutier interrupts: “I want to make a comment. I think the solution to this is to stop slowplaying.”

This was one of the only genuine fits of laughter I remember during the entire show. And it obviously contained a bit of wisdom—one that was eventually lost amid all the laughter.

In the rare instance where you flop a big hand, like two pair or better, what should you do? As with all poker strategy questions, the answer is, “It depends!” But we can try to break it down a bit further.

First, it's important to be clear that the context in which I'm discussing the hand is a no-limit game, and that it's either a cash game or a tournament played deep-stack, which are the situations where we have room for riskier maneuvers. I'm also assuming that the opponents are regular amateur players, not professional players with an advanced level of thinking in the game.

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Let's explain the factors to be considered, which are many.

Position

As a general rule, slowplaying out of position makes more sense than slowplaying in position, since if your opponent is certain to bet, you get more money from him in situations where a bet might trigger a fold.

On the other hand, however, it is possible to turn this logic on its head. Most amateur players will only donkey bet with a narrow range of hands, most commonly when they flop top pair. They tend to opt for a check-raise or other form of slowplay with big hands or bluffs. If we assume our opponent knows this, then we are causing him to misread our range of hands by open-betting with strong hands.

For example, if I have :Ac :Td on a flop of :As :Th :5c , I want my opponent who holds :Ah :Ks to read my bet as being from a medium hand, such as A9, and thus call or raise.

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Who has the initiative?

It is much more natural to bet if you were the one who took the last aggressive action before the flop. This factor, however, leads to betting more than passive play.

Image on the table

If you have a pattern of C-betting at the table after being aggressive before the flop, it is best to continue doing the same thing when you hit something big on the board. You want your opponents to think that you are just following your standard play style. A sudden shift to a passive game can set off some alarm bells, and that is the last thing you want.

Opponents' Tendencies

If you’re playing against Mr. Aggressive, who jumps in at the slightest sign of weakness, slowplaying makes more sense. It’s the good old “give him rope and let him hang himself.” Likewise, if you’re at a table full of passive players, put your money in the pot and hope they follow through with their weak hands.

Pot Size

It's a general truth that the bigger the pot, the more motivated you are to win it as soon as possible, rather than delaying decisive action that could lose you the pot. So if there was a lot of action before the flop and a lot of money in the middle, you should be less likely to slowplay.

Number of opponents

I don't have a hard and fast rule, but more opponents in the hand tend to make me want to speed up big hands rather than slowplay them, as the number of opportunities for someone to improve their hand on the turn and river increases.

Flop Texture

The texture of the flop is also relevant. Draw-heavy boards are a clear indication to invest money while you have the best hand rather than waiting for one or two more cards that could complete potential straights or flushes.

Risk aversion

We all have different levels of comfort with taking big risks for big rewards. If you’re playing very deep-stacked and have a healthy bankroll, and have the emotional stability to keep playing well after losing a huge pot on an underdog river, you have the factors in your favor to take risks by attacking some opponents.

On the other hand, if you know that you are prone to becoming a tilted player because of an unlucky outcome, that is a good reason to favor fast plays over slow plays.

In fact, this was exactly what Cloutier was saying to Hellmuth, although he didn't use that exact terminology.

There are at least eight factors to consider when deciding whether or not to slowplay monster hands. The way these factors interact to determine the specific actions of a hand can vary widely.

Above all, don’t make it a habit to slowplay every time you flop a big hand. This is one of the biggest mistakes amateur players make. It can lead to meltdowns of Hellmuthian proportions.

Translated and adapted from: Poker News – To Bet or Not to Bet, That's the Question