Bubble Strategy: Viewpoints

Many players who come to Las Vegas to play in a World Series of Poker event have their sights set on winning a bracelet. Any smaller prize pales in comparison. Any strategy that doesn’t maximize your chances of winning the bracelet is left at home, unused, and there’s nothing wrong with that, as long as you understand that it means you’re not maximizing your EV when it comes to cash prizes. Other players, however, are thinking about their EV, especially those who entered the tournament via satellites. For them, a minimum cash prize isn’t just a prize that will earn you back double your buy-in, it’s much more than that. For them, knowing the correct strategy to follow close to the bubble is vital.

The problem is that this strategy can be complicated, counterintuitive, and even weird. Let me illustrate using a simple, made-up payout table.

Let's say a No-Limit Hold'em tournament is paying 8 places and has 9 players remaining. First place takes home $11,000 and second place takes home $10,000. The other six places all take home $500 each.

Here is the chip distribution:

The chip leader has 42% of the chips.
The runner-up has 41%
The third one has 13%
The next five have less than 1%
The last placed player has a few chips

Stack-based strategy

Suppose the chip leader goes all-in, the next 7 players fold, and the last player has QsQd. However, he somehow knows that he is up against AhKc. This means that his hand wins about 57% of the time. If he only cares about winning the tournament, he should definitely call. However, if he is concerned about his EV, he probably shouldn't call.

Player with second largest stack

If you are in second place, you should definitely fold the hand. If you decide to call and win, your EV is just under $12,000. However, if you don't call, there is still a good chance that you will come in first or second, and your EV is at least $8,000. Of course, if you lose the hand you will not take home anything. Therefore, you will be risking approximately $8,000 to win $4,000, clearly not worth taking such a risk for a 57% chance of winning.

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Player with third largest stack

What about the player with 13% in chips? If he doesn’t play, he’s almost guaranteed $500. On the other hand, folding the hand makes it unlikely that he’ll come in second place. If he folds, his EV will be something like $2,500. However, if he calls and wins the hand, he’ll become the second place player with an EV of about $6,000. So for him, his EV to win is greater than the EV he risks. It’s a risk worth taking with a 57% chance.

Short stack players

However, the same is not true for players with stacks slightly below 1% of total chips, at least not while there is a player so small that he is likely to bust in a few hands. If such a player folds, his EV is approximately $500. If he calls and wins, his situation will not improve much, since he will still have less than 2% of total chips. It is better to fold and secure the money, even with a hand that is slightly more favored.

The situation would be different if there weren't such a short stack at the table. However, it may or may not be correct to call with QsQd. This would depend on how the other short stack players are playing. If they are playing tight, just to outlast the others, you should probably call. However, if they are getting involved in hands frequently, it is probably better to fold your hand and the 57% chance.

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Super short stack player

But what about the player with the tiny stack? Clearly, his only hope is to win $500. The problem is that I've formulated the problem in such a way that even if this player doubles his stack, it won't change his situation at the table much. If he had at least half of what the players with the small stacks have, it would be worth calling. Unless those players are playing very loosely. However, with a tiny stack, his only hope is to fold the hand and pray that one of the short stacks goes bust in the next few hands.

See what we have here. A situation where, with the same two cards, a player with a large stack should fold, a player with a medium stack should probably call, a player with a small stack should fold, a player with a very small stack should call, and a player with a tiny stack should fold. This is bubble strategy.

Article translated and adapted from the original located at: 2+2 Magazine