Poker can be a wild game. Whether or not you believe that “it’s not gambling when you’re good,” the fact is that it’s very easy to lose any money you throw at the table. Of course, no one enjoys losing, but many players try so hard to avoid the painful possibility of losing that they end up missing out on many profitable opportunities.
You've probably heard that it's usually a bad idea to fold KK before the flop. There are many situations where going all in with pocket kings is correct not because you're certain your opponent doesn't have AA (that's almost impossible to determine for sure), but because you're certain he might have at least a few hands weaker than your kings, like QQ or AK. When you consider all the possibilities, you realize that going all in is correct, even though you could end up in a bad situation.
It is very common in poker for a play to be correct – that is, to have a higher expected value than its other options – even when the worst-case scenario that it could result in is very undesirable. If you focus on avoiding these worst-case scenarios at all costs, you will end up missing out on many profitable opportunities, and will have less money flowing into your poker career than if you had risked more.
A less obvious example of the same worst-case scenario thinking occurs when players refuse to reraise with AK because they are unsure of how to proceed if they get called and miss the flop. It is important to recognize that this is, while not exactly the worst-case scenario, one of the worst outcomes you can have after reraising. If you focus excessively on how much you dislike this outcome rather than focusing on how profitable some other outcomes are, you are making the same mistake as the player who gives up on pocket kings pre-flop just because he is afraid of pocket aces.
When you reraise with AK, there are, broadly speaking, 4 possible outcomes.
2-Everyone folds and you win a small or medium pot without having risked much.
This is a very good result, even if it doesn't happen as often in a looser game, it certainly contributes a lot to a profitable style of play.
2-One or more players call and you flop top pair with top kicker, or better!
This is an even better outcome than the first, although there is more risk and variance involved. You won't always win this type of hand, and when you do lose it will probably be a lot, but you will usually win a big pot, and quite often you will win some very big pots.
3-Someone 4-bets you
Depending on the situation this can be very good or moderately bad, but it rarely becomes a disaster. AK is often a good enough hand to shove all in with before the flop, and if it isn't, it means your opponent has a very tight range of hands to 4-bet with, which means this situation will rarely occur. While there is even more variance and potential for big losses, this is usually not an outcome that will cost you money.
4-One or more players call and you miss the flop
Even this isn't a disaster. C-betting the flop may seem unprofitable, although it is also a high variance strategy that can trick you into focusing too much on the worst-case scenario, but the most important thing to recognize is that it doesn't matter. The other possible outcomes are so good that even if you check and fold every time you miss the flop, you will still be profitable by 3-betting.
Do you see the parallel with going all in with pocket kings before the flop? The worst-case scenario may be unpleasant, but you can't just let that guide your decisions. You have to weigh the good against the bad to choose the option with the highest expected value.
Sometimes, and more often than you would like, an unpleasant situation will arise, and you may lose money in it. These are the situations you set yourself up for when you sit down to play poker. There is no way to avoid big losses and tough decisions, and doing so is actually one of the best ways to ensure that you lose money over the course of your career. You may lose slowly, but you will lose so much potential profit that you will not be successful in the long run.
Translated and adapted from: Thinking Poker: When Ace-King Misses
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