Poker Odds for Beginners – Part II

Too much to remember? Here’s a shortcut – the rule of 4 and 2 –

Now that you’ve worked out the math and seen the theory, it’s time to introduce a shortcut. This will help you calculate your chances of winning a hand within the short amount of time that online poker allows you to make a decision.

1 – After the flop, calculate the number of outs in the deck:

Using our example from step 1, we will have 9 outs

2 – Simply multiply the number of cards that can help you by 4 and you will know the percentage of chances of receiving a card and being a winner on the turn or river.

9 x 4 = 36%

3 – After the turn, multiply the number of outs by 2 to find out the chance of winning on the river.

While this method isn’t super accurate, it does provide a pretty clear guide when calculating online poker odds. Of course, purists will still want to do some mental gymnastics to get the percentage figure exactly right, but for the rest of us mere poker mortals the 4 and 2 rule is more than enough to give you reasonable percentages.

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Some common poker hands

When preparing these hands, we did not include all the probabilities that incorporate the existence of two cards to come (i.e., situations after the flop). Instead, all of these poker hand probabilities assume that you are on your turn and want to see the river. So, without further ado:

Open-Ended Straight Draws: 4.8:1

For example, an 8-7 on an A-9-6-2 board. You have 8 outs: the four 5s and the four 10s. These odds of the hand winning assume that there is no flush possibility on the board, and that you are drawing to the best hand. Be aware that if you have 7-6 on an A-9-8-K board, the tens may not come to you, as they could eventually make someone holding QJ hit a higher straight.

Four to a Flush: 4.1:1

If your cards are suited, and there are two more on the board of your suit, you can most often consider any flush to be the nuts, since it is very rare that you will find someone else with two cards of your suit (although it can happen sometimes). If you are on a flush draw with 3 cards on the board (and one in your hand), however, you should be extremely careful if you do not have the Ace. Poker players like flush draws, and they also like to play with Aces – these two facts combined make your chances of winning much lower if you chase any flush.

Inside Straight (Gutshot or “drill”): 10.5:1

Again, I'm assuming you're drawing for the nuts, for example, with 8-7 on an A-9-5-K board. Any of the four 6s will give you the nuts. Unless you use both of your hole cards to make the straight, however, you won't get the nuts. If the board is A-9-6-5 and you have 7-2, any 8 will give you a straight, but it's not the nut straight; someone with T-7 will have the nuts.

One pair, drawing to two pair or trips: 8.2:1

If you have JT on a board of AJ-8-3, and you have a strong suspicion that you are up against someone with pocket aces, you have five outs to beat him: three 10s (giving you two pair), and two Js (giving you trips). Your odds here are based on the assumption that your opponent does not have AJ or AT! This is a dangerous assumption to make, and you must truly have better than 8:1 odds to make this call profitable to compensate for the times when you are actually on the draw and only have half the number of outs as you think you are.

Overcards on a dry board on the turn: 6.7:1

Now we really get into a dangerous assumption. If you have KQ on an 8-5-2-J board, and you think your opponent has made a pair of eights, but without a Q or K kicker, you have six outs (any king or queen will make you a better pair). The 6.7:1 odds are only valid if your assumption is correct. It is often the case that you are wrong, so be very careful in this situation.

Drawing for a set: 22:1

If you're holding 7-7 on an AK-9-2 board, and the only saving grace is a third 7. This is a very unlikely outcome, and our only reason for including it here is to show how absurd it is. I've never seen a pot big enough to justify drawing a set. We recommend folding all pots, in all pot sizes.

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Drawing for “X” outs: (46-X)/X:1

Count the number of outs you have, then subtract that number from 46.

Divide the result by the number of outs, and EUREKA – you have your chances.

For example, if I am drawing to both a set and a flush, I have reason to believe that my opponent has two pair, and I have AA, with 4 to a flush, my outs are any Ace (giving me a set), and 9 more cards to the flush (giving me a flush), for a total of 11 outs. This gives:

46-11=35

35/11=3.2

My odds for hitting the draw and winning are 3.2:1

Here is a guide to poker pot odds and which hands to play. You can download and print this chart as a guide while you play.

Download link

Translated and adapted from the original article: Poker for Dummies