Poker Strategy with Ed Miller: What Check Means

When people tell me about hands they’ve played, one important and commonly misunderstood idea comes up over and over again. Here’s an example of a common type of hand story you’ll hear: “After a limper I raised to $25 and the big blind and limper called. The flop came K-high and both players checked. This play showed weakness, so I bet to try to win the pot…” The key idea here is in the last sentence. The player telling me this story said that he bet the flop because his opponent checked, and that shows weakness.

This idea is partly right and partly wrong. It deserves some elaboration.

In general, this is a weak play. That part is correct. If your opponent checks and you bet, the overwhelming majority of the time, he will either fold or call when the action returns to him. The check-raise is a relatively rare play. That is, the initial check is made with the intention of disguising the strength of your hand.

Checks represent weakness in almost every situation – at least relatively weaker than bets. However, this is not always the case. Some are very weak, while others are only slightly weak. How do you tell the difference?

The first question to ask yourself is, “How often would my opponent bet in this situation?” Pretend that every action in the hand was exactly the same up until the check, but instead your opponent decided to bet. Is this something he would do often? Or would it be a little strange?

If he could have bet frequently, but instead checked, then his play is likely to be very weak indeed. A player usually has only a lot of strong hands. If you think he would be betting a lot, then he would probably be betting mostly with strong hands. Which means that when he checks, he rarely has a strong hand, and his hand is also very weak.

On the other hand, if the bet would be an oddity, then the check is not particularly weak. The oddity of the bet indicates that the player would tend to check with both weak and strong hands. Perhaps this is unusual, or perhaps this is an attempt to disguise the strength of the hand (usually it is a bit of both).

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Checking after having only called preflop

Checking to a preflop raiser is a very common strategy. That is what happened in the hand shown. Because it is so uncommon, these plays do not convey much information, since your opponents check with both weak and strong hands. So it is not correct to say, “My opponent checked to me, the initial raiser, so he probably has a weak hand.”

Sure, they're probably weak, but that's only because most people are weak on most flops. It's hard to do anything good. However, they're probably not weak because they checked. That fact alone means very little, since you'd expect them to do that with most hands.

So you are typically right in assuming that the flop checker is weak, but you should be quick to change that assumption if they show any signs of life on later streets.

Multiway Pots (with more than 2 players)

This logic starts to change as pots get bigger. If you have one opponent, you can probably expect him to check to the preflop raiser on most flops. With two opponents, this tends to continue to be true. Once you have three and especially four or more opponents, the dynamic changes. This is because out-of-position players will become less confident that you, as the preflop raiser, will bet the flop if you don’t hit anything.

In a seven-handed pot, for example, few players would assume that you would bet a hand that didn't hit just because you raised preflop. Out of position, players are more likely to bet their hands, rather than check strong hands.

So the more players there are in the pot, the weaker the flop checks tend to be, even when players are leaving the action to the initial raiser.

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When the Initial Raiser Checks

When a raiser checks the flop, it usually indicates a very weak hand. You can reach this conclusion using the above logic. You would expect the raiser to bet. Therefore, a bet would not necessarily be particularly strong. But you can expect the raiser to bet most strong hands. A check will usually mean some sort of very weak hand with the occasional strong hand by deception. However, when the raiser does this, it usually means weakness.

Anyone who checks behind the flop after the initial raiser has already done so is likely to be very weak. These players are not checking back to the raiser, since the raiser has already passed without betting. Almost always a player will bet with any value hand in this situation, so this represents a lot of weakness.

Applying these Concepts

Here are some short examples to help you apply some of these concepts.

You are on the button in a four-way pot and the preflop raiser is directly to your right. On the flop the action checks to the raiser and he checks. This is probably a good spot to bluff. The initial check indicates some sort of weakness in this multiway pot and the raiser's check shows weakness.

You are in the big blind against a limper and a raiser. On the flop you check, your opponent checks, and the raiser checks. This is a good spot to bluff the turn. However, be careful with the limper, as checking the flop is not necessarily a weakness.

A player limps and you raise preflop. The big blind calls and the limper also calls. The big blind bets about half the pot on the flop. This can be a good bet to intimidate (raise or call and wait to play the turn). Since most players would check with good or bad hands in this situation, the bet often implies some kind of weak or vulnerable hand.

Two players limp and you raise from the button. Both blinds and both limpers call. The flop comes unconnected and undrawn. Everyone checks to you. This is a potential betting situation, and when called, plan to bluff the turn. These plays in this situation are weaker than the typical “check to the raiser” play, since a multiway pot can persuade someone with a vulnerable top pair to bet rather than risk the round ending with no action. You will probably get called on the flop, but often a big bet on the turn will win you the pot.

Final Conclusions

The simple assumption that a check means weakness is usually correct, but to use the concept properly you have to go deeper. Sometimes it shows much more weakness, other times it is more standard and doesn't mean much.

Article translated and adapted from the original: Poker Strategy With Ed Miller: What aCheck Means