Playing an Edge Middle Pair Against an Aggressive Player

To start this article I will tell you about a hand that happened during a side event of PokerStars Festival: New Jersey, with a buy-in of $2,000 – a situation where I have a middle pair against a player who chooses to attack me on all three streets.

With blinds at 50-100 and an effective stack of 30,000, a good, loose-aggressive player raised to 300 from the button. I decided to call from the big blind with :Ts :Tc . Normally I would 3-bet with strong hands, but I think calling with 100% from my playable range is perfectly acceptable against an aggressive opponent who is capable of putting me in tough spots after the flop.

Many strong hands that are not premium, such as TT or AJ, are much better off being called rather than 3-bet out of position just because the stacks are deep. This is true because they usually don't flop the nuts, leaving you in a tough spot if the pot is already inflated. With hands that are often marginal, you should limit your risk. 3-betting preflop maximizes your risk against strong loose-aggressive players who play well postflop.

Analyzing the flop – we have middle pair and flush draw

The flop came :Qc :9c :2c , giving me a middle pair and a decent flush draw. I checked and my opponent bet 175 into a pot of 650, I called.

I think the only play that makes sense is to check-call. With marginal made hands, you want to see a cheap showdown, at least until it becomes clear that you have the best hand. When your opponent is betting, even if he's betting small, it's easy to be behind.

Note that even if I am behind top pair or a low flush, I have possible outs to improve to a ten-high flush. This makes folding a bad option. Likewise, I don't think check-raising has any merit here, since my opponent will only call with a higher pair or better made hands than me, as well as stronger draws. Check-calling is preferable because it forces my opponent to continue in the hand with his c-bet play.

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It's worth mentioning that I find that many of these tiny bets indicate a marginal made hand or a marginal draw. I don't want this range of hands to fold, since more often than not my hand will be ahead.

Analyzing the turn – now we also have a drill

The turn comes :8s. I checked, my opponent bet 600 into the 1,000 pot and I called.

As with the flop, I think check-calling is the best play in this situation. The turn card didn't hurt my hand much, other than the fact that I now lose against hands like JT, Q8, 98, and 88. If I was behind on the flop, I gained some outs to a straight. Again, with a master made hand, check-raising doesn't do any good unless I think my opponent would fold all top pairs and maybe even two pairs if I played this way.

Finally, the river – a big bet from the villain

The river came :3d. I checked, my opponent bet 2,100 into the 2,200 pot.

When the opposing player chooses to play the “small bet, normal bet, big bet” line, he will usually have a polarized range on the river. This means that I am most likely facing a top pair, two pair, trips, flush, or a draw that has not completed. Note that there are many good hands that are now beaten by mine, such as AJ, KJ, AT, KT, and other flush draws. While other draws may have improved to a pair, I don’t think a loose, aggressive villain would turn hands like :Ac :2h or :Jc :8h into a bluff on the turn. This leads me to make the decision to hero call, at least until I have more information about my opponent’s tendencies. Of course, if my opponent thinks I am a calling station, I should fold. If he thinks he can beat me out of the hand by betting, I should call.

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With no reads and considering that I am blocking some potential flushes and straights thanks to my tens, I decided to call. My opponent showed a value bet with :8h :8d , a set.

Conclusion – Is the way we play this Middle Pair profitable in the long run?

Note that my check-call on the flop left him free to improve his hand to a set without paying any more for it, but losing this one pot isn't all that bad since my opponent needed exactly 1 out. When he fails to improve his hand to a set, I will usually win that hand. This means that I will win a small pot about 97% most of the time and lose a large pot about 3% most of the time. By check-calling, I allowed my opponent to improve what was then the second-best hand. At that point, his hand was worth the risk of just a bet or perhaps a bluff. When your hand is good enough to beat marginal hands and catch bluffs, you should check, giving your opponent every possible chance to make as many mistakes as possible. In return for letting them lead the betting rounds, they will usually hit draws, causing you to lose the pot. This is the price you pay for keeping them in your hand and taking their money when your draws don't hit.

Article translated and adapted from the original: Poker Strategy With Jonathan Little: Playing A Marginal Middle Pair