Today, in the world of poker, it is difficult to find a player who is not familiar with the concept of continuation bet.
The upsides of c-betting are obvious: you seize the initiative as the preflop aggressor and take it to the flop with another bet. You will often take down the pot unchallenged, making continuation betting an important tool in any poker player's arsenal.
The problems start to appear when you automatically start c-betting every hand you raised preflop. Yes, c-bets are profitable, but not when you use them all the time. You need to find a middle ground, otherwise you become predictable and ultimately exploitable.
So when not to c-bet?
Against multiple payers
If you raise before the flop and get called by many opponents, your c-bet will rarely, if ever, have any effect. The more players in the pot, the greater the chance that you will get called by at least one of them.
A continuation bet is, by definition, a mini-bluff that uses the fold equity you gain from being the aggressor before the flop to win the hand. As more players enter the pot, your fold equity gradually decreases, causing you to get called more often. When there is a good chance you will get called, it is better to wait until you have made hands to bet, and not bluff.
Against Calling Station players
For the reasons discussed above, when you find yourself facing calling station players, i.e. those who call a lot of bets with bad cards in search of draws and rarely fold their hands, a c-bet may not be a good idea. As the saying goes, you can't bluff a calling station. However, this doesn't mean that you should give up on c-betting altogether. You need to consider each opponent individually to make the best decision.
If your opponent is the type of player who calls the flop but often folds to a turn bet, stick with the c-bet and be ready to bet the turn! These are some of the most profitable players to play against.
Calling station players love to call, so let them call. However, bet more often with good hands and save the bluffs and c-bets for specific situations.
On a Board with many draws
Some flops are better for c-betting than others. If your opponent hits the flop, he will probably call a bet. So think about his range. If you find that many hands in his range match the flop well, it is best not to c-bet.
If the board is very drawy, something like :7h :8h :5d , you shouldn't c-bet as much unless you have a good hand. This is because this type of board always gives your opponent something to want to continue playing the hand with. If you continue to c-bet the same way you do on other boards, you're just throwing money away.
Take into account your perceived range (perceived range)
Try to get into your opponent’s head. Think about what he thinks you have. If it seems unlikely to him that the flop helped you, you should think twice before making a c-bet.
For example: you raised from middle position and were called by a player on the button and the flop came :3h :3d :2s . Your bet will not be respected, as most of the hands you would have raised with from that position completely missed that flop.
Continuation bets work best when the flop comes in such a way that it appears to have helped the pre-flop raiser.
When out of position
As always in poker, if you are out of position things get more difficult.
If you make continuation bets a habit and fold when you get called, your opponents will take advantage of you. They will start calling your raises in position, calling your bet on the flop and taking the pot from you on the turn.
If your preflop raise is called by an opponent you consider good and who is in position on you, you should generally c-bet less often. It's hard enough to play out of position, and against a good player it only gets harder.
When you are in position, however, things become easier, as you can more accurately determine your opponent's hand. This means that you can c-bet more often, as you are more comfortable with firing bets on the turn when your opponent checks.
When we are out of position we are left to guess, and we often find ourselves having to check-fold when our c-bet on the flop doesn't work.
A recurring theme
Obviously, for the attentive reader, there is a recurring theme in this article. The determining factor when making the decision of whether or not to apply a continuation bet is fold equity.
Simply put, the higher your fold equity, the higher the probability that your opponent will fold, so the higher the frequency of your c-bets should be.
Once you lose that fold equity, c-bets are no longer profitable. So stop trying to win absolutely every hand where you are the preflop aggressor. It's not going to happen.
Take a minute to analyze the board texture, your opponent and his range, and your perceived range. If all signs point to a c-bet, go for it.
Author: Daniel Skolovy
Translated and adapted from the original: When Not to Continuation Bet
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