6-max online games are insanely aggressive. The average player will raise about 16% or more hands and continuation bet over 70% of them.
So when you flop a hand with as much fold equity as a flush draw, there's no point in playing passively.
Let's say you call on the button with any suited connector and the flop comes your flush draw.
If you decide to flat-call your opponent's c-bet, that is, only call with a hand that has the potential to be the aggressor, when the turn comes a disconnected card from the board, which does not complete your flush, you will have to fold to a second barrel, leaving behind the money paid pre-flop and on the flop.
Putting money in the pot and then giving up is one of the biggest causes of a descending red line.
You need to stop putting money in the pot only to give up without even putting up a fight!
Why should I play my draws aggressively?
It's simple, we learned this in the first poker lesson.
When you are the aggressor, you can win the hand in two ways: by making your opponent fold or by having the best hand at showdown.
More ways to win means more profit.
To take it a step further, when your opponent is raising 16% preflop and c-betting almost every hand, you will rarely have a hand that can hold up against a raise.
He will often c-bet on J-high flops, for example, with any hand that raised preflop, and will be forced to fold when you raise.
Now the tables have turned, he will be the player putting money into the pot with his pre-flop raise and c-bet, only to fold.
Example:
Online 6-Max Game with Effective Stacks of $200
His opponent, who is a good regular (with stats: 20$ VPIP; 18% PFR; 3.0 aggression factor; 70% flop c-bet), raises to $8 from the cut-off.
You call with :7h :8h from the button and everyone folds.
The flop comes :6h :2d :Qh . Villain c-bets $13 into the $19 pot.
Let's think about your range, which is extremely wide at the moment.
A player who raises 18% preflop from all positions will raise about 24% from the cut-off.
Listing all these hands is a waste of time, let's just assume there are a lot of hands.
Instead, let's think about what hands he could continue with against our raise: AA-AA, AQ-KQ, 66, 22, and Ace-high flush draws, which make up about 6% of his range.
This means he will fold to a flop raise about 75% of the time.
And guess what? Even if you get called, you have over 35% fold equity against everything but the nut-flush draw.
Standard outcome: You raise to $60 and he folds.
Fold equity is key
Essentially, the above bet is a semi-bluff that relies on fold equity.
If your opponent is raising a very wide range preflop and c-betting very frequently, he will fold to a raise on the flop a percentage very high of times.
When you raise on the flop with a flush draw, you want your opponent to fold. However, you know that if you get called you can still win the hand if you hit the flush.
What if he pays?
If your opponent calls your raise on the flop, you need to rethink your calling range.
Some players will call the raise with less than ideal hands and end up folding to a second barrel. Against these opponents you can safely shove the turn and laugh when he folds.
However, if your opponent calls the flop with a more conservative range, it is better to try to see a free card.
Like everything in this beautiful game, it depends on the type of player you are facing.
What if he shoves?
If he shoves you need to take the bait and call. Yes, it's a tough call, but it's the right play to make.
In our example the pot is $19 when he c-bets $13. When we raise to $60 and he shoves, the pot is now $271.
In this pot we need to call $132. When we need to call $132 to win $271 we have better odds than 2:1, these being the odds needed for a 9 out draw with the turn and river remaining.
Obviously it's not the best possible scenario, but it won't happen that often. Most players will fold and we'll steal their preflop raise and c-bet.
Bonus: Balance your range
Another bonus of playing draws aggressively that cannot be quantified mathematically is the balancing of your range.
If you are raising on the flop with a flush draw, your opponent will no longer fold top pair. He will be left to guess whether you are raising with a set or a flush draw.
So instead of just folding to your flop raise, since you never raise with anything less than a set, he will be forced to play the guessing game, which is not at all profitable.
The end result is more action for your hands made.
Negative point: variance
One downside to playing draws aggressively is variance.
When you raise with your draws, you will often take down the pot without a showdown. However, occasionally your opponent will end up having a good hand and you will not be the favorite in the hand. You will win some of these pots and lose others, it is the nature of the game.
Obviously, in the long run, raising with draws is much more profitable, as your opponent will just fold very often.
Add to that the extra action you’ll get when you hit your draw and you can see how profitable this play is. The only problem is that the short term is going to be a rollercoaster ride.
Hang in there and keep making the right play, not being driven by the outcome, and see the rewards.
Author: Daniel Skolovy
Translated and adapted from the original: Playing Your Draws Aggressively
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