Statistical Software (HUDs): Interpretation and Practical Use – Part 1

In modern online poker, the use of statistical software is essential, both to help you read the game and to review your sessions and analyze your mistakes. These programs save your hand histories and perform mathematical calculations to generate data. By evaluating this data, you can estimate various aspects of your opponents. You can reach the same conclusions by watching games and remembering them (as in live poker), but with software, you can do it much more accurately.

There are already a variety of programs that have these functions, the main ones being: Holdem Manager and Poker Tracker. They offer the HUD (Heads-Up Display), a window that remains open while you play, with information about your opponents.

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Before you start evaluating the indexes, keep these things in mind:

• The more hands you have played with your opponent, the more accurate your data will be. 50 hands give you virtually no information. After 200 hands it starts to improve, but for less common event percentages the ideal is 1000 hands or more.
• Statistics aren't everything. Just because the villain plays a lot of hands doesn't mean he can't have a good hand this time.
• People change their style and mood. You may have a lot of old data on a player and this could “pollute” the most recent assessment if he has changed his style. Observation is also essential.

We will now describe the main statistical indexes used in online poker.

VP/IP (%)

“Voluntarily puts money in the pot”, VPIP

This statistic shows the number of hands in which the villain is voluntarily participating (the blinds are not included in the sample) in the pot. In practice, it tells whether the villain plays too many hands (loose) or too few hands (tight).

This statistic is very much up to personal interpretation, but what most players have as a basis is more or less the following:

• <15% – Very tight, in fact, it’s not even tight anymore, it’s NIT, in other words, it’s a rock. You can be sure that he will only enter the pot with great hands in early position (EP) and it’s quite possible that his range for late position (LP) is something like ATs+, 88+.
• Between 15% and 22% – Tight player. Notice if they play low pairs in EP, and also notice if when they do, they limp or raise. Write this down in your notes.
• Between 22% and 30% – He is a semi-loose. He usually opens with ANY pocket pair, regardless of position. He plays hands like AXo and high suited connectors in EP.
• Between 30% and 40% – He is a loose player, plays many hands from any position, and can be a weak player or a looser experienced player. You will learn how to differentiate them below in the article.
• Between 40% and 60% – He is maniacal, plays several weak hands, in any position. He is the type of player you like to have at your table.
• >60% – It’s free money. The popular “donkey” or “fish” in poker slang. A villain’s dream, free money…

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PFR (%)

“Pre-Flop Raise”

This is the percentage of hands in which the player raises preflop. It is always less than or equal to the VPIP and, obviously, it should be analyzed together with it. When we say that a villain is 30/15, for example, it means that he enters 30% of the pots and in half of those he enters with a raise (15%, half of 30%).

The PFR value alone may not mean anything. For example, a 60/18 player (at 6-handed tables) is not aggressive, while a 20/18 player (at full tables) is extremely aggressive.

NOTE: The greater the difference between an opponent's VP/IP and PFR, the weaker they tend to be.

40/5 player: tends to be weak (donkey). 40/30 player: is a loose but very aggressive player, can be an experienced player who likes more action (e.g.: Gus Hansen).

This article continues in part two: Statistical Software (HUDs): Interpretation and Practical Use – Part 1

Article originally written by Jardim, from the Poker Tips Forum, and adapted.