Fighting the semi-bluff

You've probably heard somewhere that you should raise to punish draws, or to deny your opponents good odds to chase them. Let's get straight to the point: It's fine to bet and put money on the table when you're ahead, it's fine to bet enough to give your opponents bad odds to chase your draws – but you probably shouldn't raise your opponents even if you suspect they're on a draw.

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In short: bet to punish draws, but don't raise to punish draws.

The problem is that when you have a hand that you want to take to showdown, such as an overpair or top pair – and you raise an opponent who you suspect is semi-bluffing (but aren’t sure) he has the option of re-raising with his monsters or just calling with his draws. This is true in both limit and no-limit play. In fact, depending on your opponent’s tendencies, you can be up to 75% certain that he is semi-bluffing and it would still be wrong to raise. Let’s look at an example:

A heads-up flop where you raised preflop against the BB. You have AA, the board shows T92 with two hearts and one spade. You bet and your opponent in the BB calls. The turn is the 5 of spades. Your opponent leads out. Even if you suspect he is semi-bluffing in the hopes of taking down the pot against unimproved ace-high or some similar hand, you still shouldn't raise. If we expect his range to be a big draw (open ended straight draws, flush draws) as well as two pair or a set, then we have this prediction:

Half the time you win 80% of the time

Half the time you win about 10% of the time

On average, he has the advantage. That alone is enough to tell us not to raise. But what if the odds of him semi-bluffing were 2/3?

2/3 of the time, you have a 80% chance of winning

1/3 of the time you win about 10% of the time

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Sure, we now have an edge, but only until we raise! Immediately after we raise, our opponent has the edge again, but a third of the time he can still re-raise with a hand that destroys ours. The fact is that when we raise, we are passing the betting to him again, and that makes a difference. We really can't fight the semi-bluff with aggression. In fact, there is no defense against a semi-bluff other than calling and re-evaluating the river. In a big pot, occasionally blocking bets with a big draw can be good if you also block bets with big hands (like sets). If your opponent raises you when you have the draw, you're in trouble - but the times he does and you have a big hand, he's lost a stack.

Note that all of this doesn't apply when the stacks are smaller than the initial raise, and you're going to put one of them all-in. The danger is in getting reraised, not in making a raise. If you take away your opponent's ability to reraise, you only need the usual 50% to make the play profitable.

The bottom line is: if you never semi-bluff or take the initiative with draws, consider experimenting to get a feel for how the play develops. Occasionally do this with big hands as well. If your opponent takes the initiative on you on a drawy board, when your hand is vulnerable and he has either a big hand or just a draw, you should not raise.

Article translated and adapted from the original: Fighting the semibluff