One of the most difficult situations we face in poker is when we are faced with a bet from a player who is representing a better hand than yours, at a time when there will be more betting rounds after that.
The problem, in simple terms, is whether you have a significant chance of improving your hand to the point of beating the one your opponent is representing. But what if you don't? If such outcomes are not taken into account for either side, that is, when there are no cards so good that they completely change the game at once, you have a tough call with a mediocre hand, since there will usually still be two more rounds of betting to come.
A typical situation is when, for example, you are holding JJ in No Limit Hold'em, and the board comes up something like 9 7 3 2 rainbow, and then the player who re-raised you preflop bets back about half the pot. Against this player, you estimate that your chances of having the best hand are about 30%. If you raise, he will probably call with hands that beat you and fold hands that lose to you. So a raise would be wrong. So should you call?
In this case, it all comes down to a simple math problem.
If you or he is all-in, or nearly all-in, it's a simple math problem and an easy call. Let's say the pot is $100 and he posts $50. With pot odds of 150 to 50, you would only need to win 25% of the time to make the call correct. You have about a 34% chance of winning, including the chances of another J. However, from now on, I'll ignore that chance, as well as the chance that your opponent improves his hand. Not that it should be ignored, but for now, it serves to make the math simpler.
Going back to the example, the problem is that you are nowhere near all-in. Furthermore, he will most likely bet on the river. Should this change your decision-making? Of course it will! For example, if you knew that he would always bet half the pot on the river, say $100, with every hand he bets on the turn, you would fold to that turn bet. At this point, your odds are 250 to 150, which requires a winning chance of about 37% to make the play profitable. Note, however, that if you call on the turn, you must then call on the river as well, since you will now have odds of 300 to 100. This is exactly why your effective turn odds are 250 to 150.
A call on the turn could be an even bigger mistake if your opponent is known for occasionally checking the river with weaker hands that don't beat your jacks. This would lower your expected pot odds to something like 240 to 150, since you'll still lose $150 when you lose the hand, but you'll only win, on average, $240 when you win.
Be very careful about having hasty opinions.
This kind of thinking leads many players to quickly fold hands similar to this on the turn. However, they may be making a mistake, and here’s why:
Most players who see their opponent call a bet on the turn with something that is obviously not a draw assume that he will probably call a bet on the river as well. So they are inclined to check the river with many of the weak hands they bet on the turn with. If you know this about your opponent, everything changes. The extreme case would be if they never bet on the river with hands that lose, in this case to jacks. Knowing this, you would never call a bet on the river, and the situation would revert to what it would be like if you were both all-in. You call the $50 on the turn and either lose when you have the worst hand, or win $150 when you have the best.
But what if he bets 10% out of the 30% times you're ahead? That still means you're right to call his turn bet and fold to his river bet. We're assuming all of your bets are half-pot bets, so in this scenario we're looking at odds of 150 to 50 on a hand with a 27% chance of winning, which is still a good situation.
Of course, in this particular example, if we had known from the beginning that he would bet the river with about half of his losing hands, as well as all of his winning hands, we would, again, have folded on the turn. If we call the turn and fold the river, we are only winning 20% of the time, and calling the river is even worse. Can you see why?
Either way, in situations like this, you should seriously consider calling a bet if you intend to fold if he does, in fact, bet again.
It would be remiss of me not to mention that a call on the turn with a hand that has odds of 30% could theoretically be a correct call against some specific players even when you are absolutely certain that you will call another bet on the river.
As an extreme example, let's say you think your jacks have a 20% chance of being the best hand, which means that calling on the turn would be wrong if he puts you all-in. However, suppose you also believe that almost all hands that beat you are top pairs, and that the player holding any of those pairs will be afraid to bet for value on the river. Meanwhile, you are pretty sure that when he has a losing hand he will bluff for about half the pot. In this scenario, if you call the turn and river, you will win $350 (the original pot plus $150 from the turn bet and the $200 river bet) when you win the hand, and you will lose $50 when you lose. Effective odds of 7 to 1 on a 4 to 1 chance of winning.
Conclusion
I hope I have given you some insights and strategies to think about when faced with situations like this. When you don't know your opponent's playing tendencies, try to pay attention to the ideal strategy, following the theory. However, when you have information about your opponent, make him pay dearly for it.
Article translated and adapted from the original: Facing the Threat of Future Bets
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