Shortly after the 1999 Columbine High School shooting in Colorado, I remember seeing an op-ed that supported gun ownership for select teachers. The article included a line that has stuck with me ever since: “Hitherto unthinkable problems require heretofore unthinkable solutions.”
No matter what your opinion is about arming teachers, that’s not the point. The issue is how we perceive new problems and new solutions. Let’s look at a concrete example.
In my most recent session at Harrah's Cherokee ($1/$2 no-limit hold'em), I was just playing the ABCs of poker at the beginning of the game, as I normally do. I like to persuade the table to think that I only bet or raise when I have good hands, and check and fold when I don't. Once they are thinking this, it becomes much easier to exploit them with bluffs and slow play.
After a few hands I had raised before the flop only with high cards or speculative hands like suited connectors, I had few callers and I missed the flops. As I wanted to establish a serious image I preferred not to bet with full air, against several opponents, so I opted for the check-fold.
After this happened a few times I noticed that one of the big stack players at the table started betting on flops that were unlikely to improve on my possible starting hands. For example, if the flop came :9d :5c :3s , he apparently thought I had missed the flop with hands that I would have probably raised preflop, like AJ+. So he would risk stealing the pot.
This was certainly clever. He was playing the math, which says that most flops will not improve most players' hands. I don't know if he actually hit the flops or if he just decided that no one probably did, leaving the door open for safe bluffs. Either way, he took down pots unchallenged.
But after this happened two or three times the pattern was pretty obvious to anyone who paid a little attention. So the next time the same pattern appeared I was ready. I raised with KJo, a few players called and we saw a flop with disconnected cards and no aces or suited cards. And sure enough, the big stack led out with $15, with me and one other player in the hand.
Based on the same reasoning he was using, I knew that he most likely hadn't connected with any big plays on this flop. Few $1/$2 NLHE players can resist the temptation to slow play big hands like sets. I was confident that his bet represented nothing more than top pair, and probably less than that. Likewise, it was unlikely that the other player would have hit anything big. So I raised to $40 and took down the pot.
What matters here is why it worked – because it was the first time he had seen me do this. I was more aggressive than I had been before. His natural conclusion was that an aggressive, unexpected bet implies a very strong hand – like a set, or even pocket aces or kings, which don't need any help from the flop to be the best hand.
It was the same reasoning that made me fold big cards the first time he bet in this situation. I figured he probably had something big, while I didn't. But after seeing him make that same play a few more times, it stopped being strong. It became harder to give him credit for having something strong worth betting every time.
And of course, if I kept raising his donkey bets, as I did that one time, sooner or later he would stop assuming that such aggression represented a strong hand.
Here's the thing: The first time an observant opponent sees you take an unusually forceful action, you'll get a lot of respect. But the second or third time, you probably won't get as much respect.
So how do you exploit this knowledge? Well, think about it. When you have a really big hand, do you want your opponents to call or fold? Call, right? However, when you do something very aggressive, you will probably only get folds. This means that the smartest play is to make aggressive moves when you have a weak hand.
Then do it again some other time, and again without a strong hand, and you'll probably get away with it again.
But the third time, assuming your opponents are paying attention, you better actually have the strong hand you're representing, because at this point you've already raised your opponents' suspicions and curiosity. When you think you're going to get called, here that you really must have the monster hand, to extract as much value as possible from the hands that are strong enough to dare to call your bets.
Most players at this level have it backwards. They are aggressive preflop by limp-reraising the first time they get AA or KK. Or they only check-raise after flopping a set.
These players aren't thinking clearly. They're trying to get you to fold when they should be trying to get you to call their bets. A much better strategy is to use the credit of being an aggressive player for the first time and take down a pot that you couldn't win on the strength of your hand alone - that is, on a pure bluff.
And as a bonus, this way is much more fun!
Translated and adapted from: Picking Profitable Spots: Learn How to Set Up Your Aggressive Moves
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