Bet sizing is one of the most important tools for a live No-Limit player. Average players give away a lot of information in the amount of chips they choose to bet. It is no exaggeration to say that mastering bet sizing may be the most important skill for playing small stakes No-Limit Hold'em. Here I will present three hands where bet sizing tells can profoundly influence the way you make your decisions. All hands are played at a $2/$5 limit with a $1,000 stack.
Hand 1
On the first hand, a player limped in, then a very active player at the table raised to $25. The cutoff called and you, on the button with :8d :6h , called. The blinds folded and the limper called. The flop was 4-handed and the pot was $107.
The flop comes :Jc :8c :4d . The limper checks, as does the preflop aggressor. The next player bets $35.
The flop is very loosely connected, with a flush to a club draw. The typical player holding a strong hand like AxJx or KxJx would have a specific thought in this situation. After the preflop aggressor checked, this player would assume that he probably holds the best hand. However, the board has a few possible straight and flush draws, and playing against three opponents, this player would certainly want to bet solidly to protect his hand.
So if the flop aggressor does have one of these strong hands, I would expect him to bet a higher amount, at least $50, but even $60 or $70.
The $35 bet points to hands like Jx9x or 99, X8 or some draw, rather than something strong.
You only have a middle pair, and there's a good chance you're behind in the hand, but I'd still call. You could, on the other hand, raise immediately, challenging the aggressor post-flop. However, against so many opponents, this is unnecessary and dangerous. Calling allows you to see how the action unfolds next without committing too much to the pot. If someone check-raises, you can walk away from the hand without taking too much of a hit. If, say, one of the other two players calls, you can see the turn action before having to commit.
Some cautious players would prefer to fold in this situation, but I think the size of the bet, and its low price to call, make calling cheap and profitable.
Hand 2
Two players limp in and you raise to $25 from the Hi-jack with :Kd :Qs . The big blind calls, as does one of the limpers.
The flop comes :Kc :8d :7d . Your opponents check and you bet $60 into a pot of $80. The big blind calls and the other player folds. The turn comes an 8h. Your opponent bets $80 into a pot of $202, you call. The river comes a 5s, leaving the board: :Kc :8d :7d :8h :5s . Your opponent then bets $250 into a pot of $362.
The small bet on the turn could mean one of two things. First, it could be an 8. Second, it could be a player with a weak hand, such as KxTx or a draw, wanting to prevent you from betting too big, leaving the river cheap for him.
For some players, the small bet is probably more likely to be a weaker hand than an 8 (perhaps because you would expect that player to check-raise with a hand of that strength). For other players, however, the small bet might be more likely to be a set, as they would play weaker hands more passively. Let's say, for example, that you don't have a strong read on which direction your opponent seems to be going, so you decide to call the turn.
The size of the bet on the river makes me think that this player probably has trips, which would make me fold. On the turn, he bet $80 into a pot of $202, which is less than half the pot. Furthermore, the bet is less than $100, which is kind of a magic number in these games (bets larger than $100 tend to be more serious, in general, than those smaller than $100). That's why I characterize this turn bet as small.
On the river, however, the player bets more than two-thirds of the pot and much more than $100. In this context, this bet is very high.
In general, the pattern of small bets leading to big bets tends to show a lot of strength. Players at this level who bet small, and when called, decide to bet substantially more on the next street, tend to show that they are really trying to extract value from their hand. Holding KQ as the preflop aggressor, you have exactly the type of hand your opponent expects you to have. If he is betting for value, he has probably already beaten your hand. Therefore, folding is the best option.
What makes me feel more comfortable about folding is the betting pattern, which ranges from small to very large. The flop had a lot of draws, making it a reasonable board for the opponent to try to bluff. Therefore, I would not recommend folding too quickly from KQ to other betting patterns of this player. However, in this particular situation, his bets suggest enough strength to beat his hand. I don't think it's worth calling at odds lower than 3-1.
Hand 3
A player opens with a raise of $20 from MP. A player calls and you call with :Qc :Jc from the cutoff. The button calls and both blinds fold. The pot is $107 and has 4 players.
The flop comes :Jh :Td :6d . The preflop aggressor bets $60 and the next player folds. You call and the button folds. The pot is $207.
The turn comes :7d . Your opponent bets $100 and you call.
The river comes :3c. Your opponent checks.
The bet sizes for this hand tell a pretty clear story about what the aggressor is likely to have. Betting $60 into a $100 pot on the flop isn't a huge bet, but it's a solid option against three players. Hands like KJ, AJ, KK, and so on are all possibilities. Of course, he could also have KQ, AK, a flush draw, or some other hand. The $60 bet isn't definitive for either side.
The $100 turn bet, however, is decidedly small given the situation. It suggests that the player is now playing defensively. Since the flush draw completed on the turn, there is a good chance that he has a pair. He doesn't want to give away a free card to hands like straight draws, but he also doesn't want to commit too much to the pot in case you already have the flush.
The check after the river confirms this hypothesis. The probability of him having a flush is very low, given his betting pattern which has gone from strong to weak.
There's a good chance your opponent is worried that you have the flush. There's also a good chance that your hand isn't good. It's worth considering a bluff here, and if you do bluff, you should bet big to make it worthwhile. A bet of $400 into the pot of $427 would probably have a good chance of winning.
Final Thoughts
Bet sizing tells can give you a good insight into what your opponents are doing in No-limit games. If you learn to use this information to your advantage, you can undoubtedly become one of the best players at your level.
Article translated and adapted from the original: Three Bet-Sizing Tells
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