Every hand is an investment
Avoid making –EV plays, these will only bring harm in the long run.
- Don't get involved in situations where you don't have many outs and the pot odds are bad. Going into hands where the pot is already very full with marginal hands, low pairs, etc. can be very dangerous. You will rarely get any return, and if you do, no matter how big it is, in the long run your play will have a negative EV and you will lose money.
- Beware of marginal calls and unnecessary bets. Whenever you find yourself in a marginal situation, facing a bet and not knowing what to do, give up. You will lose less money by folding a few times than by always calling.
Try to combine these mathematical elements with your assessment of the situation from a more intuitive perspective when making your decision. It’s difficult to calculate EV in the heat of the moment, but if you have a good read on your opponent and define a range of hands that he might be holding, you can compare his probability of winning with yours. This way, you can avoid plays like these:
Situation 1:
NL50 6 Handed (live)
Player 1 (SB): ~100
Player 2 (BB): ~50
Player 3: ~100
Player 4: ~75
Player 5 (you): ~50
You are dealt AK, you raise and player 3 calls.
Flop: 4 8 J rainbow, player 3 checks and you check behind (you preferred not to c-bet because you were too aggressive)
Turn:3, same thing
River: 6 – Player 3 decides to bet. I call and he shows A3.
What is the purpose of this bet? Usually when you get called it will be from a better hand. Most of the time you will get calls from A8, 9J, 77… and rarely will someone call because they think they are ahead when in fact they only have a high card (as was the case).
Now that I think about it, this play doesn't make any sense and it's clear that the expected value of this play, in the long run, is negative. This type of bet usually won't make anyone with a worse hand than you fold and will only get calls from better hands (this hand was an exception).
Situation 2:
NL50 6 Handed (live)
Player 1: ~150
Player 2: ~50
Player 3(SB): ~75
Player 4(BB): ~100
Player 5 (You): ~125
You are dealt KK, you raise and both players in the blinds call.
Flop: 8 9 T both players check, you bet and they call
Turn: J same thing, but now the SB folds when you bet
River: 5 The player in the big blind checks once more and calls your bet once more.
In the end he had 9T and took the pot.
Is two pair a good hand? Yes. But you must analyze the entire context of the hand.
A player (me) raised, symbolizing a strong hand. It was already a mistake to play 9T out of position, and this hand is certainly behind my early position raising range, which in itself already characterizes a situation of losing money in the long run. As the hand progressed, he kept calling on a completely connected board; there were combinations of cards that beat him on the river, but he still decided to call.
Of course I could take advantage of the table to bluff, but the best thing to do was to fold, because two pairs are rarely ahead in this situation.
Other frequent mistakes, especially among micro stakers, are calling when the odds are not good in relation to their chances of winning.
It is very common to get to showdown and see that your opponent has been calling down throughout the hand with a gutshot and missed.
Tip: Treat your hand as an investment. If you avoid risky investments and try to play in situations where your chances of success are higher, you will be a winner. Don’t let yourself be completely influenced by “feeling”, because your interpretation is subject to error, but if you incorporate mathematical thinking into your game and master it to perfection, your game will be “infallible”.
Adapted Article: Credits to TostesBr
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