Why are tournaments so profitable for knowledgeable players? Because you will always have two types of players with different goals. And they will know how to put pressure on the tournament bubble.
In a 180-person tournament at PokerStars, you are actually competing with less than 100 opponents. In other words, there are at most 100 players who are actually trying to win the game. The rest are just trying to win a prize, that is, to reach the prize pool and make a small profit. These players are not competing with you for the final prizes.
In the early stages, they are playing to accumulate chips, just like you. Their strategy is not necessarily –EV, although their playstyle may be.
Once the prize pool has been reached, many of them will be happy to have achieved their goal and will start taking risks, but they will be too short to cause any problems.
On the bubble, however, they will fold very often, leaving a lot of dead money on the table for the taking. You need to organize yourself to grab as much as you can while there is still time, and this will be the best opportunity you will have to accumulate chips at this stage of the tournament. Here are ten tips on how to do this:
1: Raise.
Even if you already know this, you probably don’t raise enough. “Never” limp. Not UTG, not BTN, never. The odds are too good to win a hand without a showdown. (Maybe never is a strong word, but it’s just to get the point across.)
2: Fold.
Just because A9 is a good hand in your range to re-raise a late position opener doesn't mean you should necessarily call if he goes all-in. There are plenty of players on the bubble who know you're stealing but are too afraid to attack you back, and there are also those who know the strategy of the game and wait for good hands to return the attack and punish your raise. However, if this starts to happen too often, you can certainly widen your calling range a bit. It's worth remembering that usually the first time you're counterattacked means your opponent really has a hand and it's best to fold. You can get your lost chips back in just one orbit, but one or two wrong calls can reduce your stack and end your ability to steal. There's so much easy money to be had on the bubble without the need for a showdown that you don't need to despair, just wait for the best opportunities.
3: Target the weak.
The decision to open a raise is determined by three factors, in order of importance: who the blind is, their position, and their cards. You should start identifying who is playing just to get in the money before the bubble even starts, and continue to pay attention to who is not defending the blinds and who seems to be making big laydowns. With this information, your shots will be on target.
4: Balance the competition.
Players who just want cash are not the real competition. At this point, they are just giving you free money and all you have to do is take it. However, you should still play real poker with other players who play to win, who are also after the dead money just like you. These players are just as likely to steal and re-steal as you are. And you need to adapt correctly so that you don’t get hurt by playing against them.
5: Look at the chat.
The dialogue at the tables gives you a lot of clues about who is playing for the money. We see players saying “I would have called if we weren’t on the bubble”, “I’m folding JJ here” and “Yes, Yes, Yes!” every time they win a pot. These are easy targets who are afraid of falling into the bubble.
Some players will also comment on how frequently you are raising and will threaten to call “next time”. Pay attention to these and it will help you decide how to act when they counterattack you.
6: Split your attacks.
Many players will take it personally when you try to steal their blinds. If you abuse the same player too often, he or she can end up standing up to you and messing up your plans. Sometimes players will recognize that you are stealing too much, but they won't care as long as you are not bothering them or feeling abused. If you have raised player X in the last two orbits, try changing it up and stealing from player Y next time.
7: Protect your blinds.
If you call or re-raise your blinds sometimes, many aggressive players will be discouraged from trying to steal from you, since there is easier money available. Players who just want to cash out will make some weak steal attempts like min-raising or open limping from late position. They will often fold if they encounter any kind of reaction for fear of becoming the tournament bubble. Take advantage of this!
8: Protect your opponents' blinds.
A good aggressive player on your right may try to disrupt your plans by understanding your strategy and will start trying to steal the blinds before you. Don't look at this as a bad thing, look at it as an opportunity: he is putting money into a pot that he cannot defend. His only options are to keep raising and giving you money, or to stand down and let you continue with your play; it's a win-win situation for you. If weak players won't defend their blinds, you will defend them for them. Defend your steal opportunity!
9: Place the last bet.
Just because a player decides to call you to see a flop doesn’t mean they have a big hand. With so many people stealing blinds, many players will end up entering the game with weak hands sooner or later. They’re usually looking for a cheap showdown to either piss you off or push you out of the pot. If you play your draws aggressively, you’ll find that they’ll start to enter fewer hands against you. You just need to structure yourself so that your bet is the last one, making the decision harder for your opponent.
It's much harder to call an all-in with a marginal hand than it is to push all-in with the same hand, so be the final aggressor.
10: Reach the bubble with a big stack.
While the bubble is a profitable time to steal the blinds, a 3xBB raise from the chip leader has much more fold equity than an 8xBB raise from a short stack going all-in. Ninety percent of the time we will prefer to accumulate chips over survival, but in most tournaments it may be wise to alter your strategy before the bubble to arrive at the bubble with a decent stack to be able to steal some. This means taking a little more risk when you are short, trying to double up and build a healthy stack, or folding some hands to keep your stack healthy.
Article translated and adapted from: Ten Tips for Improving Your Bubble Play by: Andrew Brokos
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