Petrillo: Great guys!
I've been studying bad beats for a few months now, so I can formulate a formal definition on the subject (for later accurate classification, if possible).
In this sense, I will open some topics for specific discussions on the subject, one of the most controversial in poker.
By our glossary definition:
BAD BEAT: losing a hand in which you are the big favorite.
But what does it mean to be a big favorite?
Let's start with pre-flop, which is the question in the poll.
Reflect on the topic and then answer the survey, leaving comments!
Thanks!
Marcelo: For me there is no bad beat pre-flop.
If you have :As:Ad and I have :7h:2c I still beat you 12.5% of the time.
If you roll a six-sided die, you have a 16% chance of getting a six.
In other words, the worst hand in holdem versus the best is almost like rolling a dice and getting a six.
I believe that a bad beat is when the chances of winning were, after the flop, remote. Talking about numbers is difficult.
Petrillo: But what if it's :As:Ad against :Ac:7d? Then the chance is 6.4% for A7o to win... In this case, don't you think it's a bad beat?
Petrillo: In my opinion, any XX against XY (with X>Y) or any XY against XZ (with Y>Z), and whoever was losing wins the hand, I consider a bad beat preflop.
Examples:
:Qh:Qs X :7c:7d (Q > 7)
or
:Kh:Qs X :Kc:Jd (Q > J).
Now AKs x 72o and the 72 wins, I don't consider it a bad beat pre-flop.
Marcelo: Makes sense, I hadn't thought of that, hehehe
Now that would be a horrible bad beat…
brunomulato: I voted for 20% or less. A 20% chance of winning is low in my opinion for you to bet your entire stack preflop. Nobody knowing that your chances are only 20% would go all in preflop, that's why I consider it a bad beat. But obviously I make a distinction between bad beats. Losing with 80% chances of winning is very different from losing with 95% chances. And obviously I'm taking into account that it's a heads-up match, and not against several people and a big pot.
Antonucci82: Yeah, I also think that losing with a 80% chance of winning is a bad beat.
TSawyer: In my opinion, I have doubts in two situations:
1st in the pre-flop if you have :Ac,:Ad x :Kc;:Kd the percentage is in your favor... so could we consider anything that is outside the statistics a bad beat???
2nd After opening the flop you have the biggest pair on the table and your opponent only has a middle pair, but on the turn and river he gets outs for a straight or flush... could we also consider this a bad beat???
Could someone answer my questions????
Regards, Tsawyer:spade:
Jardim: In my opinion, I have doubts in two situations:
1st in the pre-flop if you have :Ac,:Ad x :Kc;:Kd the percentage is in your favor... so could we consider anything that is outside the statistics a bad beat???
I consider it a bad beat, yes.
You have a 83% chance of winning, your opponent has a 17% chance. He only has 2 outs.
If nothing comes on the flop, your odds go up to 88 vs 12.
On the turn, 95 vs 5.
2nd After opening the flop you have the biggest pair on the table and your opponent only has a middle pair, but on the turn and river he gets outs for a straight or flush... could we also consider this a bad beat???
Could someone answer my questions????
Regards, Tsawyer:spade:
1 – On the river he has no way of “winning outs”, he either hits or he doesn’t.
2 – let’s assume the following hand, as an example of what you mentioned:
You have :As :Qs, the villain has :6d :3c.
In pf, you have 67% chances vs 33% for the villain.
Flop: :Ac :6s :2c
Here your odds are 77% vs 23%.
Franco's favorite. IMO, it all depends on how you play. The guy could already have a flush and straight draw here. You with AQs, what would you do?
Let's suppose you have notes that he is a LAGtard and wants to slowplay (he shouldn't, but let's suppose)... You check, he does too.
Turn: :5c
Here, you've already fallen well. Your odds are now 62% vs 38%. It's almost a coinflip. If any other club card comes, a 4 or a 3, you lose. He has 12 outs and is very likely to call a bet of yours here.
In my opinion, your play of checking the flop was bad. There were draws on the table, you HAVE TO DEFEND your hand!!!
Here on the turn, you are still the favorite, but now, the chance of you losing is much greater. You could have avoided it.
In my opinion, if you lose, it wasn't a bad beat, it was a mistake on your part. You lost almost all of your fold equity by making the wrong play on the flop.
River: :4c
He goes all in, you call and lose to a runner runner straight flush.
There are many cases, but in the example I gave, for ME, there is no bad beat at all, you played badly and deserved to lose. You gave the villain a chance. And to top it all off, you called on the river when you were losing to a huge range of hands. Folding is not bad, remember that!
If anyone disagrees with my point of view, please speak up and let's debate...
🙂
Ps: The hand I posted there is just an example, I don't mean to say that no one here would do that. (God forbid! looool)
Strong Abs
Jardim: Regarding the topic, for me, 10% chance is a bad beat.
Example: You have AA vs AJ from the villain. 88% vs 12%. Villain is completely dominated.
Flop comes with 3 jacks. Wow, if that's not a bad beat, I don't know what is...
Out of every 100 calls the villain makes in this situation, he will lose 88… totally -EV in the long run. It is unacceptable for a winning player to do this.
IMO, talking about numbers is complicated. But, in my opinion, 20% and below is a bad beat.
Abs
TSawyer: Dude I liked your review.. thank you very much:happy34:
I was able to understand some points that were unclear…
Thanks a lot…
Regards, Tsawyer:coolgleam:
Petrillo: Thanks guys for participating!
I'll let the discussions on the topic continue a little longer before giving my more formal opinion.
But I'll leave you with a hand to ponder: :Ad:Kd (75%) X :As:Qd (25%), and the players go all in. If AQo wins, is it a bad beat pre-flop?
If so, the 30% (or less) option is the correct one… Think about it, reflect, do your math on PokerStove and then post here!
Or just say hi if you liked the topic! 😉
Jardim: Thanks guys for participating!
I'll let the discussions on the topic continue a little longer before giving my more formal opinion.
But I'll leave you with a hand to ponder: :Ad:Kd (75%) X :As:Qd (25%), and the players go all in. If AQo wins, is it a bad beat pre-flop?
If so, the 30% (or less) option is the correct one… Think about it, reflect, do your math on PokerStove and then post here!
Or just say hi if you liked the topic! 😉
I also consider it a bad beat, it's a different case from the AA vs AJ mentioned, but still, it's dominated... AsQd only wins if it hits 1 queen (and no king), 4 spades or something like KsJdTc... Any other combination, gives AKs...
Given this, I change my choice to the “30% (or less)” option… lol
😀
However, there is one thing that makes it different…
Let's imagine that you are at a table, which has no notes on ng, it is completely dark. You come with AQo in the BB, a guy in MP raises to 5bb, a guy in CO re-raises to 10bb, SB calls.
What do you do????
No notes, I, JARDIM, insta-fold. There was a raise, re-raise and 1 call before… Either the guy is a maniac, or everyone has good hands… I'm not going to call to see, not with AQo…
Until I have a read on the villains, I play tight! A tight player doesn't call a re-raise from AQo without a note... That's not playing tight.
AQo is not even among the 10 best hands in holdem. Any pocket ten or nine is ahead of you…
What I see a lot of people making mistakes with is this, the hand ranking... The guy says he plays tight and re-raises me with KJs... Man, KJ is TRASH... Obviously I'm not saying you shouldn't play with KJs, EVERYTHING depends on the situation... but KJs is not and will NEVER be a premium hand...
In other words, I want to say that this situation mentioned by Petrillo is a more difficult situation for you to get involved in than AA vs KK for example… It really sucks… It's very complicated to fold KK please… Unless I'm absolutely sure that I'm behind… And even then, I'm going to think A LOT and I'm definitely going to be pissed off about folding… (and, I confess, it's VERY difficult for me to fold)…
Petrillo: Hi Jardim!
Just remembering that I am always considering that two players are competing in a pot and go all in pf. I am not getting into the merits of whether the call is right or wrong, but whether it is a bad beat or not...
In the example you gave, I've already folded millions of times... And even if I have notes that the guys are loose, I have to think hard about whether I'm going to get into a fight in the dark without a made hand...
Guys, keep sharing your opinions!
Petrillo: To continue my studies, I made a spreadsheet where I calculated the probability of losing a higher pair against a lower pair (more than 1 billion simulated hands for each case).
39
I'm also making it for dominated hands (like AK x AT or KQ X KJ). When it's ready I'll publish it.
There was one more besides Marcelo who voted that there is no bad beat pre-flop. I respect the answer, but it would be important for you to show the reason for your point of view, so that I can change mine if the argument is coherent…
Petrillo: Detail of this table: it shows the probability of a higher pair losing against a lower pair, only the losses! The draw percentage is not considered!
Therefore, 33 against 22 has a 17.08% chance of losing, but a 5% chance of drawing…
I think the table becomes more interesting with just the chance of losing.
Of course, a draw when you are a big favorite is bad. But a defeat is much worse (and it is much more frequent).
Petrillo: Wow, nobody liked the table? I thought it was going to be a huge success! :thumbsup:
And I'm doing three more: AXo against AYs, KXo against KYs and QXo against QYs, always considering X>Y and that the favorite doesn't have a card of the underdog's suit (giving the poor guy another chance).
Marcelo: Basically pair against pair so it's 4:1, very strong domination.
If both pairs are low, the chance of a tie increases slightly.
Petrillo: Hey guys!
Continuing the work on bad beats, I attached another figure, now AXo against AYs, with X>Y and X of a different suit than Y.
52
Examples:
Two hands go all-in preflop:
:Ad:Kh against :As:Ts -> AKo's chance of losing to ATs is 28.66%.
:Ad:3h against :As:2s -> chance of AKo losing to ATs is 26.58% (but the chance of a draw is greater than 40%!)
I added a detail, which is a color table for ties, because these values cannot be disregarded when X is less than 9…
I hope you like it!
Keep voting in the poll at the beginning of the thread. I'll work on the KXo vs KYs table...
Thanks!
Marcelo: Thanks for the analysis friend, the graphics are excellent.
Petrillo: Hey guys!
Another exclusive PokerDicas table! Now with KX dominating KY.
63
With it one can reach a conclusion;
Any time someone has less than 30% of winning preflop and wins, it is a bad beat.
Thanks guys!
Petrillo: Guys, I'm going to update this topic.
Vote and give your opinion. I will publish an article about bad beat and would like your opinion.
Petrillo: Hi guys!
Take a full look at this topic, where I have put together three very interesting tables.
Understand that there are hands that are big favorites, but none are invincible. Therefore, whenever you put all your chips in the pot, understand that from time to time you will lose, that this is part of the game and so there is no point in going on tilt because of it!
Thanks!
Sarsante: I think it's when the winner has 30% or less to win pre-flop, which are the cases of dominated hands.
AKs vs KQs
71.429% x 28.571
another bad scenario is PP x PP being the same suit
:2d :2c x :Ad :Ac
17.115% x 82.885%
and the big winner, obviously
:7d :2c x :Ad :Ac
11.023% x 88.977%
João Felipe: I don't believe that anyone gets tilted by just one hand...
At least I am like that, I think: “it happens” and I keep playing…
but every now and then you lose about 15 of these in less than 45 minutes, you lose all the flips... then I go into tilt, HARD
It had been a while since this happened to me, I was already thinking I was immune to tilt... when it happened, 25% were gone from my bankroll...
João Felipe: And the worst part is that, in order to try to distill it, I had the stupid idea of playing casino…
I ended up tilting the roulette too and it was another 25% from the bank
Minored: I think it's when the winner has 30% or less to win pre-flop, which are the cases of dominated hands.
AKs vs KQs
71.429% x 28.571
another bad scenario is PP x PP being the same suit
:2d :2c x :Ad :Ac
17.115% x 82.885%
and the big winner, obviously
:7d :2c x :Ad :Ac
11.023% x 88.977%
the most tilting imo
:Ad :Ac x :As :Kc
93.470% 6.530%
prof_anselmo: I'm going to tell you what a bad bet is... it's what's happening this week, including today, the beginning of next week
all in pre-flop I JJ the other 88... and rivestars... the guy's 8 comes
pushitforme: I'm going to tell you what a bad bet is... that's what's happening this week, including today, the beginning of next week
all in pre-flop I JJ the other 88... and rivestars... the guy's 8 comes
same here
Zaraki16: Hey guys, I get a bit lost in this bad beat thing. For me, anything below 10% is already a huge mistake for the villain to get, although 20% is also a very small percentage of the villain getting his hand right. In my opinion, I completely agree with my brother Jardim who mentioned a play above, it will also depend a lot on the player's ability to decipher a bad beat. If the guy plays wrong like in the example above, of course it won't be considered a bad beat, because it was the player's mistake. Now, everyone must agree that luck sometimes helps, and you should always play a hand when your EV is positive... I think that's it guys, correct me if I'm wrong, after all, I started in the poker world in October... thanks
Zaraki16: Guys, I just played a sng fifty 50 tournament here, and look at the guy's screw-up, seriously, this is a fucking bad beat to me, and the worst part is that the guy played a worse hand than this and won 1st place, this makes me really angry... If anyone doesn't agree, please explain to me why...
PokerStars Game #72620707181: Tournament #488221993, $1.39+$0.11 USD No Limit Hold'em – Level VIII (75/150) – 2011/12/23 1:05:05 EDT
Table '488221993 1' 10-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: dr.unkn zero (1205 in chips)
Seat 2: bootterm (2339 in chips)
Seat 3: ZARAKI16 (2383 in chips)
Seat 4: KingGeen (1050 in chips)
Seat 5: gaoziqing (1737 in chips)
Seat 6: Tobichile (1525 in chips)
Seat 7: Danat54 (1595 in chips)
Seat 8: Jvezina (1352 in chips)
Seat 9: phayo86 (1814 in chips)
dr.unkn zero: posts the ante 20
booterm: posts the ante 20
ZARAKI16: posts the ante 20
KingGeen: posts the ante 20
gaoziqing: posts the ante 20
Tobichile: posts the ante 20
Danat54: posts the ante 20
Jvezina: posts the ante 20
phayo86: posts the ante 20
dr.unkn zero: posts small blind 75
booterm: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ZARAKI16
ZARAKI16: calls 150
KingGeen: folds
gaoziqing: folds
Tobichile: folds
Danat54: folds
Jvezina: folds
phayo86: folds
dr.unkn zero: calls 75
booterm: checks
*** FLOP ***
dr.unkn zero: checks
booterm: checks
ZARAKI16: bets 150
dr.unkn zero: calls 150
booterm: folds
*** TURN ***
dr.unkn zero: bets 300
ZARAKI16: calls 300
*** RIVER ***
dr.unkn zero: bets 585 and is all-in
ZARAKI16: calls 585
*** SHOW DOWN ***
dr.unkn zero: shows (two pair, nines and sixes)
ZARAKI16: shows (a pair of Kings)
dr.unkn zero collected 2700 from pot
Felipe_pkr: I don't think it's bad.
What screwed up there was the fact that you were out of position, I believe that this made you bet only 1BB (big mistake) so as not to scare anyone, even so only the SB called. Flop with 3 guys, and I had only bet PF, at that time I would have bet more chips, I was giving too much leeway to bad luck there and that's what happened, the guy had the second pair and decided to risk his luck on the turn
It would be bad if it was all-in PF, with you having a 66% chance of taking the pot against the guy with 6-9.
Zaraki16: Poker Stars $0.23+$0.02 USD No Limit Hold'em Tournament, Blinds: t50/t100 Hand Converter
7 players
Protorsky (SB): t3.819 (M:25.46)
ZJIODEI (BB): t3.269 ( M:21.79 )
ZARAKI16 (UTG): t1.945 (M:12.97)
parviz35 (UTG+1): t4.530 (M:30.20)
SvenTheFin (MP): t4.022 (M:26.81)
gellissystem (CO): t1.860 ( M:12.40 )
Chicoo555 (BTN): t1,330 ( M:8.87 )
Hero is UTG with J//conversordemaos.com/images/phc/clubs.gif, J//conversordemaos.com/images/phc/spades.gif
Preflop: ( t150 )
ZARAKI16 raises to t300, 1 fold, SvenTheFin raises to t500, 4 folds, ZARAKI16 calls t200
Flop: ( t1,150 ) 8//conversordemaos.com/images/phc/hearts.gif, 2//conversordemaos.com/images/phc/hearts.gif, 6//conversordemaos.com/images/phc/clubs.gif (2 players)
ZARAKI16 checks, SvenTheFin bets t1,500, ZARAKI16 calls t1,445 all-in
Turn: (t4,040) T//conversordemaos.com/images/phc/clubs.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: ( t4,040 ) K//conversordemaos.com/images/phc/spades.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: t4,040
ZARAKI16 J//conversordemaos.com/images/phc/clubs.gif, J//conversordemaos.com/images/phc/spades.gif
SvenTheFin K//conversordemaos.com/images/phc/clubs.gif, A//conversordemaos.com/images/phc/spades.gif
SvenTheFin wins t4,040 of the pot
Look at this guys, on the turn I had a 86% chance of winning against 13%, and then the river comes and shows the K, that's a bad beat...
Poker_Minsk: Yes, it is a bad beat, since on the flop (when both players got stuck and had all their chips in the middle) you had the advantage. Happens! Keep going, in the long run you will be the winner ;). And take note of that villain.
Zaraki16: Don't worry, I'll still catch this villain on the curve...lol...thanks
Petrillo: To continue my studies, I made a spreadsheet where I calculated the probability of losing a higher pair against a lower pair (more than 1 billion simulated hands for each case).
39
I'm also making it for dominated hands (like AK x AT or KQ X KJ). When it's ready I'll publish it.
There was one more besides Marcelo who voted that there is no bad beat pre-flop. I respect the answer, but it would be important for you to show the reason for your point of view, so that I can change mine if the argument is coherent…
An upgrade to this table, which is cool! 🙂
Original author: Petrillo.
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