In today's poker world, it's hard to find a player who doesn't know the concept of a continuation bet.
The upsides of c-betting are obvious: you seize the initiative by being the aggressor pre-flop and take it to the flop with another bet. Often, you'll take the pot uncontested, making the continuation bet an important tool in any poker player's arsenal.
The problems start to appear when you automatically start applying c-bets to absolutely every hand you raise pre-flop. Yes, c-bets are profitable, but not when you use them all the time. You have to have a middle ground, otherwise you'll become predictable and ultimately exploitable.
So when not to apply a c-bet?
Against multiple payers
If you raise before the flop and are called by many opponents, your c-bet will rarely, if ever, take effect. The more players in the pot, the greater the chance that you'll be called by at least one of them.
A continuation bet is, by definition, a mini bluff that uses the fold equity you get from being the aggressor before the flop to take the hand. With more players in the pot, your fold equity gradually decreases, causing you to get paid more often. When there's a good chance you'll get paid, it's best to bet when you have made hands and not bluff.
Against Calling Station players
For the reasons discussed above, when you find yourself facing calling station players, i.e. those who pay a lot of bets with bad cards in search of draws and almost never let their hands go, applying a c-bet may not be a good idea. As the saying goes, you don't bluff a calling station. However, this doesn't mean that you should completely give up c-betting. You need to consider each opponent in particular to decide on the best play.
If your opponent is the type who calls on the flop but often folds to a bet on the turn, continue with the c-bet and be ready to bet on the turn! These are some of the most profitable players to play against.
Calling station players love to call, so let them call. However, bet more often with good hands and leave bluffs and c-bets for specific situations.
On a Board with many draws
Some flops are better than others for applying c-bets. If your opponent hits the flop, he'll probably call a bet. So think about your range. If you come to the conclusion that many of the hands in his range go well with the flop, it's best not to c-bet.
If the board is very drawy, something like :7h :8h :5d , you shouldn't c-bet so much unless you have a good hand. This is because this type of board always means that your opponent has something with which to continue playing the hand. If you keep c-betting the same way you do on other boards, you're just throwing money away.
Take into account your perceived range (perceived range)
Try to get inside your opponent's mind. Think about what they think you have. If it seems unlikely to him that the flop helped you, you should think twice before throwing in a c-bet.
For example: you raised from middle position and were called by a player on the button and the flop came :3h :3d :2s . Your bet won't be respected, because most of the hands you'd raise with from that position missed that flop completely.
Continuation bets work best when the flop comes in such a way that it seems to have helped the player who raised pre-flop.
When out of position
As always in poker, if you're out of position things get more difficult.
If you make continuation bets a habit and fold the hand when you're called, your opponents will take advantage of you. They'll start calling your raises in position, calling your bet on the flop and taking the pot from you on the turn.
If your preflop raise is paid by an opponent you consider good and who is in position over you, you should generally c-bet less often. It's hard enough playing out of position, against a good player it only gets harder.
When you're in position, however, everything becomes easier, as you can determine your opponent's hand more accurately. This means you can c-bet more often, because you're more comfortable throwing bets on the turn when your opponent checks.
When we're out of position we can only guess, and we're often forced to check-fold when our c-bet on the flop doesn't work.
A recurring theme
Obviously, for an attentive reader, there is a recurring theme in this article. The determining factor when deciding whether or not to place a continuation bet is fold equity.
Simply put, the higher your fold equity, the more likely your opponent is to fold the hand, so the more often you should c-bet.
Once you lose that fold equity, c-bets are no longer profitable. So stop trying to win absolutely every hand where you're the aggressor pre-flop. It's not going to happen.
Stop for a minute, analyze the texture of the board, your opponent and his range, as well as your perceived range. If all the signs point to a c-bet, go ahead.
Author: Daniel Skolovy
Translated and adapted from the original: When Not to Continuation Bet
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