brunomulato: I'm going to count this hand in parts, because I want to see what you would do at each step, knowing only your hand.
It happened to me in a 0.05/.10 cash game, table with 9:
Me: $15.30
UTG: 7 dollars
Cutter: 14.65
I'm a dealer with 22. UTG clears, everyone runs away except the cutter who raises .30.
What should I do? This first part doesn't have much of a secret, but I still want to see your opinions.
Marcelo: I'd fold, without a doubt.
We have limp from UTG, who will speak again.
And we have cut-off, showing strength.
Your hand is average and will only be worth anything if you chop.
Fold without pain in the conscience.
Petrillo: This one's easy! Install-fold!
Considering that Limper has a random hand and CO has a wide but playable range (22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,92s+,82s+,72s+,62s+,52s+,42s+,32s,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo).
Your chance of winning this hand until the river is 28.664%, against 31.891% for limper and 39.445% for CO.
The cash game scenario of playing 22 with a limper on UTG and a 3BB raise on CO must meet certain conditions:
* I know the guys are extra fish tight passive;
* I haven't bluffed in the last 2,553 hands; 😀
* I have a tight image;
* I'm respected at the table;
* I'm the dealer.
* I would raise 8BB to represent a very strong hand and isolate myself with the CO. If he comes back strong, it's fold.
But really, with 22 the best deal is to fold this hand. It's a very cheap game and full of fish, so it's good to keep a tight base. And playing 22 with a limper on UTG and a raise on CO is definitely not a tight play!
Thanks and I look forward to the next chapter!
Marcelo: Considering that Limper has a random hand and CO has a wide but playable range (22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,92s+,82s+,72s+,62s+,52s+,42s+,32s,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo).
Your chance of winning this hand until the river is 28.664%, against 31.891% for limper and 39.445% for CO.
You're sick! 😮
In a good way, of course :D:D:D
DonBorella: man, cash games for me should be played ultra tigth, especially in low stakes. 22 only gives you 2 outs against two other players and one who has shown his strength and even if he's not that strong, almost every time he'll beat you.
easy fold!
brunomulato: Okay, exactly what I expected to hear, easy fold. But in this particular hand I called for these reasons:
* UTG limped almost every hand and ran away in raises, when he really wanted to play I raised (waiting for him to run away);
* the cutter tried to steal the blinds every round;
* I haven't bluffed in the last 2,553 hands (thanks Petrillo!);
* had a tight image;
* was respected at the table;
* was the dealer;
* I'm Brazilian and I never give up (hehehe). Translation: I know that in theory I was making a mistake, but I thought I should bet my percentage and my post-flop in this situation and with a bit of luck (12%) make it and take a big pot.
Right. I just call, SB and BB run away, UTG calls (Damn!). The flop comes: QhQs2c
Pot of 1.05, both check. Your turn, now what?
Petrillo: Ahahaha! Excellent topic!!!
What a Mexican soap opera!
As they usually end up in whining, one had Q and a runner-runner pair showed up at the table... And you were in the bag!!! ahahah!!!
Seriously, it's a shame you didn't raise 8BB pre-flop. UTG would have folded and so would CO, or called, but in this case his range would be relatively well defined, so we could rule out an unlikely Q2... But since you only called, we could be up against anything.
But as I always say, it's essential to have the courage to play poker; you have to extract the maximum amount of money from a rare flop like this.
And also be playing within your bankroll, so that if you lose everything in a huge hand like this, it's okay!
Let's go to the hand. Since there are two guys in the hand and the flop is a totally unconnected rainbow, I think there are two ways to go:
1st) one with lower variance -> bet 2/3 of the pot;
2nd) one with a higher variance -> bet between zero and 1/3 of the pot or all in.
I'd bet 1/3 of the pot to ward off a suitcase with nothing and be fine if someone has a Qx, AK or pair, as they'll probably raise on my bet and you can call "showing weakness". With the pot at $2 and the villain's bet on the turn, you can grow this pot to 6 and look for an all in on the river, if you don't fold a pair, A, K or J (which would give full nuts to AQ, KQ and QJ, respectively).
So I'd bet $0.30: if the villain calls or mini-raises, I'm in trouble... If he raises $1, I can call almost comfortably to take more chips on the turn.
How these players used to play with big hands. Did they check-raise a lot? A lot of slowplay?
I'm curious: will there be a synopsis of this soap opera in the newspaper? hahaha
Thanks brunomulato!
DonBorella: Okay, exactly what I expected to hear, easy fold. But on this particular hand I called for these reasons:
* UTG limped almost every hand and ran away in raises, when he really wanted to play I raised (waiting for him to run away);
* the cutter tried to steal the blinds every round;
* I haven't bluffed in the last 2,553 hands (thanks Petrillo!);
* had a tight image;
* was respected at the table;
* was the dealer;
* I'm Brazilian and I never give up (hehehe). Translation: I know that in theory I was making a mistake, but I thought I should bet my percentage and my post-flop in this situation and with a bit of luck (12%) make it and take a big pot.
Right. I just call, SB and BB run away, UTG calls (Damn!). The flop comes: QhQs2c
Pot of 1.05, both check. Your turn, now what?
and why didn't you explain this before????
😐
brunomulato: and why didn't you explain this before????
😐
On purpose, I didn't want to influence the answers. I wanted to show that poker isn't as black and white as people usually make it out to be on forums. Even if you know all the most relevant theoretical information, it's just as important, if not more important, to read your opponents and not just their cards and actions. Of course, this type of reading can also be systematized, as shown in my last message, but it's not tangible information, it's "feelings" so to speak. I really didn't expect someone to be so direct in their first reply. Once again, an excellent comment from Petrillo.
Marcelo: Well, you have a monster, and you have to pray that someone has a pocket pair (not Q, of course) or some Q.
I hope UTG has something, but nothing too strong. QJ or QT or QK would be ideal.
But the post-flop check makes me think that nobody has anything, or someone has Q and is slowplaying.
I'd probably check, or bet 1/3 of the pot.
The check was to keep them both in the hand and hope they caught something on the turn.
1/3 of the pot if I think the guys will pay with anything to see one more card. The flop doesn't help, because if neither of them has Q or 2, the flop was useless.
Raising the pot here would be nice, because if I checked and on the turn both guys checked it was a sign that there wouldn't be much more action in the hand.
Conclusion: I'd bet $0.35
brunomulato: Responding to Petrillo: the cutter varied, check-raising, strong betting or slow play with big hands and UTG betting strong.
Continuing the soap opera... hehehe
I bet .40, UTG ran and the cutter called.
Turn: QhQs2c 7d
Pot of 1.85, the guy checks. So what?
Marcelo: His check means he's got nothing or he's got the Q and he's slowplaying. Let's hope that's it.
Unfortunately there is no flush opening.
If you bet and the guy has nothing, he'll fold. If he has something, he'll call or re-raise.
If you check, a letter may come in to harm you, but it's unlikely.
I'd bet half a pot. If he comes back with any raise, I'll go all-in.
At the moment you only lose to QQ, Q7, 77 or Q2. With the pre-flop raise, you discard Q7 and Q2, unless it was a bluff. With the call on the flop, I'm pretty sure he doesn't have 77.
Petrillo: I agree with Marcelo's reading. You're probably winning this hand.
And I really like betting 1/2 the pot, because in my opinion it's the bet that best hides what you have...
I would also bet 1/2 and if he raised I would go all in, to decide the hand: the pot was already good and I was trying to avoid a suckout. If I called and lost, well, I'd know I'd played right.
If he was slowplaying with QQ, bear with me.
Marcelo: And the chance of the QQ is very small.
If he had QQ, he might have bet on the turn to increase the pot. Since he didn't, I think it's unlikely.
Petrillo: What's up Brunomulato? What did you do on the turn? And the CO slowplayer: did you call your bet or did you raise again? 😎
Tell us another chapter!
brunomulato: Sorry for the delay in continuing, I'm quite busy these days...
I bet .80 and the guy called.
River: 4s. Then: QhQs2c 7d 4s.
The guy went all in immediately. What should I do?
Petrillo: Dude, here's the thing: in this case, knowledge of the opponent is totally fundamental.
It's at times like this that I once again regret the fact that you didn't raise pre-flop to 8BB. If you had done that, you would have had a much better picture of the guy's hand.
Well, let's recap the guy's actions:
* He bet 3BB pre-flop in CO with a limper (he wants at least one of them to call;
* QQ2 flop, no continuation bet, just a check. Quite strange. You bet less than half the pot (0.40 against a pot of 0.90) and he only called with the QQ2 flop. In this case it would only make sense if he had two over cards (AK), 88+ or Qx.
* Turn 7d and check again. You bet less than half the pot again (0.80 against 1.85) and he calls again. A calling station behavior like this is either very stupid, because it was obvious from the size of the bets that you were big, or the guy was giant...
* River 4s: winning hands -> QQ, 44, 77, Q2, Q4 and Q7. He goes all in (a super overbet of about 10 times the pot). Why?
I have a thesis: usually an extreme move shows two extreme situations: either the guy is too big or too weak. This applies both when you go all in and when someone checks...
If you had read and knew about the guy, and he showed bizarre and not very solid hands, you can afford it. And a classic online gambling tell says that all in too quickly from a weak player is desperation.
If you see the guy as weak, call; if you see him as strong, fold. Why? Because you showed a very strong hand. So he put you in a difficult situation and bet that you would pay. I'd put the guy on QQ or Q7 and fold.
Betting 3BB with QQ in CO wouldn't be bizarre pre-flop. Since he had QQ, no one made a three-bet with Q and logically he needed to slowplay. You bet and he called. On the turn a drunk card and he checks again and you bet showing you have a good hand and he just calls. And he goes all in because in his reading you called... Looking at it this way, I'd fold. It's easy with time. But with 15 seconds to decide and a full house, I would certainly call.
So what happened?
Marcelo: Considering the level of play and the actions carried out by the cut-off guy, I think I'd call biting the keyboard, hehehe.
Below is my analysis. The odds are based on software called Chutômetro Marcelo Pokerator Tabajara 😀 .
Hypothesis 1: You made modest bets post-flop, the guy - with nothing - thought you didn't have a Q and tried to bluff - rare but plausible Chance of 15%
Hypothesis 2: The guy has something like QJ, QK, AQ and thinks he's nuts. I've made this mistake a lot myself. Many beginners bust a pair at the table and think they're nuts, not considering the possibility of full-house - quite plausible. Chance of 35%
Hypothesis 3: The guy has Q2, Q4 or Q7: if he had that hand, would he raise pre-flop after a limper? Chance: 5%.
Hypothesis 4: The guy has QQ. Hehehe, four-bet on the flop, slowplay, enters the river with nuts and goes all-in? I think that's difficult too, because if he had that he'd make a value bet. Chance: 8%
Hypothesis 5: 44 or 77 or A7. That's it. If he's very loose, it would be possible. His half-pot bets could have attracted a calling station. If he had 77 or 44, would he go all-in on the river right away? Chance: 5%
I think the guy has nothing, or he's a genius.
As I find it difficult to find a genius at micro-limits, I'd call.
Petrillo: Marcelo, excellent post!
Just a little detail: the sum of your percentages is 68%... :diablotin: 😀
Well, if you consider that only in 18% situations would the guy be winning, it's a very easy call.
But I would say that you have to strongly consider the guy's profile. If I had a read on him, I'd call. If not, fold.
I'd say he's either winning or bluffing. It would be ridiculous for a guy to go all in with an entire stack of $13 in a pot of $3 outside of those two situations.
Marcelo: Marcelo, excellent post!
Just a little detail: the sum of your percentages is 68%... :diablotin: 😀
Hehehehehe
32% chance of the guy having 7 2 offsuit :happy34:
brunomulato: Well, since no one can stand this topic any longer, let me finish.
In this hand I used two concepts that work very well for me:
1º) the famous story that if you don't know what's going on and it involves a lot of money, run away.
2º) the opponent's pattern of play usually means that they have a monster.
Knowing that I wouldn't sleep at night because I didn't know what he had, I ran out and showed him my cards. And to my surprise he showed me his: QQ.
I was so happy at the time that it was as if I had called all in and won. I was so confident after that episode that I kept playing and took more money from my opponent than I had lost in that hand, even more than doubling my winnings from other players.
brunomulato: But then why did I do all this soap opera?
I wanted to discuss this hand, pointing out that even if the flop helps you, turns out exactly what you wanted, there are still readings of your opponent. You can't let yourself be blinded by a good hand, because you run the risk of losing a lot or winning little. Another thing I think is fundamental in this hand is how to gather information and know what information you've given your opponent. As someone else said, maybe I gave off too much of an image that I wanted him to call (which ended up helping me), and he probably thought I would call that all in. But the most important mistake I think was his. If I had played differently, I probably would have lost a lot more money.
What do you think?
Petrillo:
Betting 3BB with QQ in CO wouldn't be bizarre pre-flop. Since he had QQ, no one made a three-bet with Q and logically he needed to slowplay. You bet and he called. On the turn a drunk card and he checks again and you bet showing you have a good hand and he just calls. And he goes all in because in his reading you called... Looking at it this way, I'd fold.
What do I think? Daniel Negreanu, take care! 😉
Congratulations on the fold! Your luck is that he went all in, which was VERY strange. If he bet the pot you would have paid instantly!
And congratulations on the very high quality of the topic!
brunomulato: Yes, I agree. If he came back with any kind of bet, even a high one, I'd hardly run away. All-in lit a warning light.
Marcelo: Caraca!!!!!
What a crazy guy!!!!
What a great read, Bruno!!!
The guy's all-in was very strange and totally wrong.
Original author: brunomulato.
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